A historic turning point in the Middle East: Is Hezbollah’s disarmament within reach

The past few days have unfolded like a geopolitical drama of historic proportions in Lebanon, where Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shia militia long considered untouchable, appears to be teetering on the edge of a seismic shift. 

While it’s far too early to declare that the organization is fully disarming, the signs are unmistakable: a process of disarmament, however partial, may have begun. 

For those of us who have watched Hezbollah’s iron grip on Lebanon tighten over decades, this moment feels nothing short of surreal—a potential turning point that could reshape the Middle East.

The catalysts for this unprecedented development are threefold. First, Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah has been nothing short of devastating. 

Since the conflict escalated in October 2023, following Hezbollah’s rocket attacks in solidarity with Hamas during the Gaza war, Israel has delivered a series of lethal blows. 

Many of Hezbollah’s senior military and political leaders have been killed, and the group’s once-formidable arsenal—estimated by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 2021 to include 120,000 to 200,000 rockets and missiles—has been significantly depleted. 

The war, which claimed around 4,000 lives in Lebanon and displaced roughly one million people, has left Hezbollah a shadow of its former self.

Second, the election of Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s president in January 2025 has shifted the internal dynamics of the country in ways that were previously unimaginable. 

Aoun, backed by the United States, has made it his mission to establish a state monopoly on the control of arms—a direct challenge to Hezbollah’s parallel military structure. 

His presidency would not have been possible without the severe weakening of Hezbollah, a testament to the ripple effects of Israel’s military operations. 

According to a Reuters report from April 10, 2025, a senior Hezbollah official has signaled the group’s willingness to discuss its weapons with Aoun, provided Israel withdraws from south Lebanon and halts its strikes. 

This concession, unthinkable just two years ago when Hezbollah was at the zenith of its power, underscores how dramatically the regional power balance has shifted.

The third factor is the uncompromising stance of the Trump administration, which has taken a markedly different approach to the region than its predecessor. 

Enter Morgan Ortagus, President Trump’s deputy Middle East envoy, who has quickly emerged as a diplomatic force to be reckoned with. 

Ortagus, who replaced Amos Hochstein, has adopted a refreshingly blunt tone that contrasts sharply with the more cautious diplomacy of the Biden era. When Naim Qassem, a senior Hezbollah figure, insisted that the group would not disarm, Ortagus dismissed his defiance with a single word: “Yawn.” 

When Walid Jumblatt, a prominent Lebanese politician, claimed that the Trump administration’s conditions for Hezbollah were impossible, Ortagus quipped, “Walid, crack is wack”—a sharp rebuke that translates roughly to “get a grip.” 

Her approach, as evidenced by her recent meetings with Lebanese officials including Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Aoun, signals a U.S. policy that is unafraid to push hard against Hezbollah and its allies.

Ortagus’s visit to Lebanon on April 5, 2025, as reported by The New York Times, came at a critical juncture. Despite a U.S.-brokered cease-fire in November 2024, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah remain high, with sporadic strikes threatening the fragile truce. 

Yet neither side appears eager to return to full-scale war—a small but significant glimmer of hope. Ortagus’s discussions with Aoun also touched on Lebanon’s financial overhauls, a reminder that the country’s recovery from the war’s devastation will require more than just military de-escalation. 

The Lebanese government, under Aoun’s leadership, is attempting to rebuild a nation shattered by conflict and economic collapse, and addressing Hezbollah’s arsenal is a critical piece of that puzzle.

Aoun’s strategy, as noted by Lebanese political sources, is to pursue disarmament through dialogue rather than force—a pragmatic approach given that any attempt to confront Hezbollah militarily could plunge Lebanon into yet another war. 

Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai, the head of Lebanon’s Maronite church, echoed this sentiment last week, calling for all weapons to be placed under state control but emphasizing that such a transition would require time and diplomacy. “Lebanon cannot bear a new war,” he warned, a sobering reminder of the stakes involved.

For Israel, the implications of these developments are profound. What is  unfolding in Lebanon may prove to be an even greater triumph—one that was never explicitly declared as a goal. 

If Hezbollah, long considered one of the most heavily armed non-state actors in the world, can be brought to heel, it would mark a victory not just for Israel but for the broader region. A Hezbollah stripped of its military power would weaken Iran’s influence in Lebanon and beyond, potentially paving the way for a more stable Middle East.

Yet we must temper our optimism with caution. Hezbollah remains a formidable force, even in its diminished state. The group’s history of resilience—surviving past conflicts with Israel and even claiming victory after the 2006 war—suggests that its leaders will not relinquish their weapons without a fight. 

Communication channels are reportedly being opened to study the transfer of weapons to state control, but the road ahead will be fraught with challenges.

Hezbollah’s deep ties to Iran, its ideological opposition to Israel’s existence, and its significant influence within Lebanon’s Shia community mean that any disarmament process will be a delicate balancing act.

Still, the mere fact that we are discussing Hezbollah’s potential disarmament is a testament to how far the region has come in a short time. 

What seemed like a fantasy just months ago—a Lebanon where the state holds a monopoly on arms, where Hezbollah’s rockets no longer loom as a constant threat—now feels tantalizingly within reach. 

If this momentum holds, and if Israel, the United States, and Lebanon’s new leadership can navigate the treacherous path ahead, we may be witnessing the beginning of a miracle in the north. For a region long plagued by conflict, that would be a victory worth celebrating.