AfD ahead as Merz rues 'disaster' in worst state election result in postwar German

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) took first place in state elections in northeastern Germany on Sunday, exit polls showed, delivering the worst result for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservative party since 1949.

"It's a disaster," Merz said after the exit polls were published, but signalled that he would fight on as chancellor and continue his reform agenda after speculation that a bad result could prompt him to resign.

The AfD was set to win 37% in the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) on 35.5% and far in front of Merz’s conservatives, who got 5.5% and barely crossed the threshold to enter the state parliament, according to exit polls on ARD public television. 

Sunday's result looks like delivering another first-place finish at state level in a month for the AfD party, which tops national opinion polls but which has been kept from power by the refusal of the other main parties to work with it.

In another election in the capital Berlin that also took place on Sunday, the far-left Linke party was on 24.5%, while Merz’s conservatives were on 20%. The AfD also gained in strength in the liberal city, hitting 16%. It is the first time the Linke topped polls in the state, where it wants to nationalise housing from corporate landlords and cap rents.

MERZ VOWS TO CONTINUE WITH REFORMS

Sunday's results may not prove a knock-out blow for Merz.

But his low approval ratings, unpopular reforms and the triumph of the AfD in an earlier state election in Saxony-Anhalt have left his future in the balance.

The SPD's popular state premier in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Manuela Schwesig, had climbed in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote by openly criticising both the AfD and the Merz-led federal government's reforms.

Schwesig also said the AfD had won votes by criticising Germany's support for Ukraine. She had at one time supported the Nord Stream pipeline project carrying Russian gas through her state into Germany before they were blown up in 2022, but later changed her position.

"First, in my state, many people oppose support for Ukraine, both financial and military," she said.

"And a second point: many people also wish to see energy flowing through Nord Stream again."

Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, who is also the SPD leader, signalled he wanted a change of course, noting voters' concerns over pension reforms.

"As the federal government, we need to analyse why there is such great uncertainty in the country," Klingbeil told the ARD.

But Merz instead doubled down on a reform agenda he says will revive sluggish growth in Europe's largest economy.

"What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness, and patience," he said. "I would go so far as to say that these reforms are the antidote to the authoritarian poison that is penetrating ever deeper into our society, driven by the allure of authoritarianism."

The elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largely rural state in the formerly communist east, and the capital Berlin follow the September 6 election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD came close to the rare feat of winning an absolute majority.

Elections in the two states would not usually draw much interest outside Germany, but the AfD's success in Saxony-Anhalt, which it sees as the first step towards winning federal elections due in 2029, has sent shock waves through Europe.

In just over a decade, the party, which wants to take tough action to deport foreigners with no right to stay in Germany, restore energy ties with Russia and quit the euro, has transformed itself from a fringe eurosceptic movement to the country's most popular party.

The exit polls underscore the advances the AfD has made in recent years and raise fresh questions over the "firewall" strategy, under which the other main parties refuse to enter coalition agreements with it.

MERZ HAS STRUGGLED

Elected last year on a promise of reforms to return Germany's stagnant economy to growth, Merz has struggled to win over voters, compounding resentment over unpopular pension, tax and healthcare reforms with a stream of communication missteps.

Disillusion with his government has hung over the campaigns in both Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, where voters have focused on issues including soaring energy and housing costs. Merz presented a consumer relief package on Friday that included tax cuts on gas and diesel.

Several people who voted in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania said living costs were a major concern.

"Here in Schwerin, with these wages, you can hardly afford anything anymore," voter Carlotta Heick told Reuters in the state capital.

One elderly man criticised funding for foreign aid. "We need our money here, for our country, for children and pensioners," he said, asking not to give his name.