Hungary's opposition Tisza party widens lead over Orban's Fidesz, poll says

Hungary's centre-right opposition Tisza party has widened its lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz in March, a poll showed on Wednesday, ahead of an April 12 election where the veteran nationalist is seeking re-election.

Orban, seeking to retain his 16-year grip on power, is facing a strong challenger for the first time in a parliamentary vote, with the outcome having major implications not only for Hungary but for Europe and its far-right political forces.

The poll, published by new site hvg.hu, showed Tisza gaining ground while Fidesz's support was stagnating despite numerous voter-pleasing measures announced by the government after three years of economic stagnation.

Tisza, which was only launched in 2024, has widened its lead over Fidesz to 23 percentage points among decided voters, up from a 20-point lead in a February survey, pollster Median said.

Led by former government insider Peter Magyar, Tisza had the support of 58% of decided voters, up from 55% a month ago. Fidesz was supported by 35%, unchanged from February.

When looking at the entire population, Tisza was supported by 46%, while Fidesz was backed by 30%, according to the survey conducted between March 17 and 20.

Median expects high turnout at the election as 89% of respondents said that they would cast a vote. At the last election in 2022, turnout was 70%.

"It is possible that we will see a record-high turnout," Endre Hann, head of Median, said in a podcast by hvg.hu.

The far-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazank) party was supported by 4% of decided voters, down from 6% in February. Parties must win at least 5% to get seats.

Pollster Median has one of the strongest track records of accurate forecasts in Hungary. It correctly predicted Orban's landslide victory in the last election four years ago, though it slightly overstated opposition support.

While most polls have shown a Tisza lead, Fidesz points to surveys that still show Orban's party is on course to victory. Fidesz's opponents say these have mainly been conducted by institutes with financial or personal ties to the ruling party.