IMF raises Egypt’s 2025 growth forecast to 4%, citing sector resilience

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly revised Egypt’s economic growth forecast for the fiscal year ending in June 2025, raising it to 4 percent, up from its previous estimate of 3.8 percent, according to the July 2025 update of its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.

In contrast, the IMF has lowered its projection for the current fiscal year (2024/25), which began this July, from 4.3 percent to 4.1 percent. The downgrade reflects delays in implementing structural reforms tied to Egypt’s ongoing $8 billion financial support program.

While the modest upward revision for the previous year signals resilience, the IMF emphasized that sustained economic recovery hinges on faster and deeper reform implementation. 

The Egyptian government, which had set a 4 percent growth target for FY2023/24 (up from 2.4 percent the year before), is aiming for 4.5 percent growth in FY2024/25.

The IMF cited stronger-than-expected performance in Egypt’s non-oil sectors, particularly tourism and telecommunications, as key drivers of the improved forecast. According to Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director of the IMF’s Research Department, recent data showed stronger momentum in these sectors, helping offset headwinds in reform execution.

However, Brooks clarified that the downward revision for FY2024/25 stems primarily from a slower-than-anticipated rollout of critical economic reforms.

Despite these concerns, the IMF acknowledged “tangible progress” in stabilizing Egypt’s macroeconomic environment, highlighting the importance of structural reforms in boosting long-term growth and creating quality jobs.

More broadly, the IMF has upgraded its 2025 growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to 3.6 percent, up from 2.6 percent. This upward revision is largely attributed to stronger performance in oil-exporting economies and a weaker U.S. dollar, which is easing external pressures in many MENA countries.

The IMF’s outlook closely mirrors a Reuters poll from July, which also placed Egypt’s expected FY2024/25 growth at 4 percent, reflecting cautious optimism despite persistent structural challenges.