Israel's blocs tied at 51 seats, poll finds

A majority of Israelis would prefer a unity government to a repeat election if the October 27 vote fails to produce a clear winner, according to a poll for the daily Maariv. The same poll puts the governing and opposition blocs level, and neither is close to a majority.

Only 27% of respondents said they would prefer another election, and 18% were unsure. A unity government would bring parties from both camps into one cabinet.

The two camps differ on what such a government would look like. Among opposition voters, 54% would back a unity government only if it were led by a leader from their own bloc. Coalition voters were more split: nearly 40% want a unity government headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while 32% would choose another election.

Why a tie matters

Israel's parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats, so a government needs 61. Parties must also clear a minimum vote threshold to win any seats. In the poll, the coalition bloc, led by Netanyahu's Likud, and the opposition bloc each hold 51 seats. Both blocs lost one seat this week.

Likud fell by two seats to 18, but the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party gained one, reaching eight, and Ofer Winter's People of Israel party crossed the threshold with four seats.

The opposition is led by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, the largest in the poll with 21 seats. Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad has 13. Yair Golan's Democrats have nine, and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu, down one, has eight.

Arab parties are in neither bloc. The Joint List and Ra'am have 14 seats combined, a high for them in this poll, after each gained one this week. The Reservists-Economic Party, with four seats, is also outside both blocs. Even if it joined either side, that side would not reach 61.

Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu

Asked who would make a better prime minister, 48% chose Eisenkot and 41% Netanyahu. Netanyahu and Bennett were tied at 43% each. Netanyahu led Liberman, 43% to 37%.

Overall, 79% of Israelis expect the bloc they plan to vote for to win. Optimism is higher among coalition voters (90%) than opposition voters (75%).

The poll, by Lazar Research with Panel4ALL, surveyed 700 Israelis, Jews and Arabs, on October 14 and 15. About 5.2% of voters were undecided.