Israeli polls indicate potential for center-right/national-liberal realignment

A recent Maariv poll reveals significant shifts in Israel’s political landscape, suggesting the potential emergence of a center-right or national-liberal coalition.

According to the poll, the projected distribution of Knesset seats is as follows:

• Likud: 22 seats

• Yisrael Beytenu: 17 seats

• The Democrats: 17 seats

• National Unity: 15 seats

• Yesh Atid: 11 seats

• Otzma Yehudit: 11 seats

• Shas: 10 seats

• United Torah Judaism: 7 seats

• Hadash-Ta’al: 5 seats

• Ra’am: 5 seats

Both Balad and Religious Zionism did not cross the electoral threshold.

In a hypothetical scenario where former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett returns to politics with a new party, the political dynamics could shift significantly. 

Polls suggest that such a party could secure 27 seats, surpassing Likud’s 21. This development indicates a substantial appetite among voters for a center-right or national-liberal alternative.

Caution in Interpreting Polls

It’s important to approach these poll results with caution. The next Israeli legislative elections are not scheduled until October 2026, leaving ample time for new political players to emerge and for public opinion to shift. Polls conducted this far in advance may not accurately predict future outcomes.

The prospect of a Bennett-led party forming a coalition without the inclusion of ultra-Orthodox parties could lead to significant policy shifts. Such a coalition might address longstanding issues related to military conscription, education, and civil services, promoting a more equitable distribution of responsibilities among all sectors of Israeli society.

Moreover, this coalition would avoid reliance on Arab parties, a factor that contributed to the instability of the previous Bennett-Lapid government. 

It would also reduce dependence on left-wing parties whose security and diplomatic outlooks are often viewed as rooted in the Oslo Accords era. This could pave the way for a more cohesive and pragmatic approach to governance, aligning with contemporary national interests.

In summary, while the political landscape remains fluid, the emergence of new center-right or national-liberal forces could reshape future coalition dynamics, offering opportunities for reform and broader representation.