Latvian PM Kulbergs strongly ahead in election, according to exit poll

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centrist, pro-Ukraine United List party was seen winning a parliamentary election on Saturday by an unexpectedly wide margin, exit polls showed, with many voters on edge amid warnings of potential Russian aggression.

An exit poll by Latvian public broadcaster LSM showed United List winning 35.6% of votes, followed by the populist, MAGA-style Latvia First at 11.3%. Latvia First had courted the country's substantial ethnic Russian minority in the run-up to the vote.

Baltic countries have warned for months that Russia is mounting sabotage, cyber- and other hybrid attacks across Europe to erode support for Ukraine and sow fear, although Western officials dismiss concerns it is capable of launching a direct assault on NATO, of which Latvia is a member.

Russia says such accusations are baseless and the result of anti-Russian hysteria.

Reacting to the exit poll reading, Kulbergs said he hoped to remain prime minister, but said he would not want to govern with Latvia First. If exit polls were confirmed by official results, he would still need coalition allies to form a government.

"It's remarkably good. I was not expecting such result," Kulbergs said at his party's headquarters in Riga.

Third in the exit poll ranking was the Progressives party, on 11.3%, followed by the overtly pro-Russian Sovereign Power with 10.8%.

SHADOW OF UKRAINE WAR

A businessman and amateur rally driver, Kulbergs, 47, came to power in May after the previous coalition crumbled over its handling of incidents in which stray military drones flew undetected into Latvia. Though the drones were Ukrainian, officials have blamed Russia for causing them to divert from their flight paths.

Throughout his campaign, he has also promised more anti-drone capabilities for Latvia and to maintain defence spending at 5% of gross domestic product, one of the highest levels in NATO.

But his pro-Kremlin rivals said Latvia should stop any aid to Ukraine and should instead focus more on cost-of-living issues, particularly among the country's Russian-speaking minority.

"Our voters want peace, to stop looking for shelters, to no longer experience the air alerts," Sovereign Power party leader Julia Stepanenko told Reuters. "The war must not be encouraged in any way, including by financing it... Ukraine must win, but through peace talks."

The ethnic Russian minority in Latvia is split between those who feel embarrassed or angry about the Kremlin's war in Ukraine, and those frustrated with policies at home aimed at limiting their influence on public life that many see as discriminatory.

Latvia, with a population of 1.9 million, is sandwiched between the Baltic Sea, with EU and NATO allies Estonia and Lithuania to the north and south, and Russia and Belarus to the east.