Latvians vote in election in shadow of drone incursions and war in Ukraine

Latvians vote in a parliamentary election on Saturday that is likely to keep power in the hands of pro-Ukrainian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, although deep political fragmentation may complicate the formation of a government.

Across the Baltics, including in NATO and European Union member Latvia, many voters are on edge after official warnings of potential Russia aggression and a growing number of airspace incursions related to Moscow's war in Ukraine.

Russia says accusations that it is planning to attack NATO are baseless and Western officials say it is not capable of launching a direct assault, but security concerns have weighed heavily in the election campaign.

Opinion polls put Kulbergs' centrist United List ahead, with about 14% of votes, but followed closely by the overtly pro-Russian Sovereign Power.

A businessman and amateur rally driver, Kulbergs, 47, came to power in May after the previous coalition crumbled over its handling of incidents in which stray military drones flew undetected into Latvia. Though the drones were Ukrainian, officials have blamed Russia for causing them to divert from their flight paths.

"We have to give Ukraine everything necessary right now (so) that they can have the upper hand and win", Kulbergs told Reuters in an interview last month.

Throughout his campaign, he has also promised more anti-drone capabilities for Latvia and to maintain defence spending at 5% of gross domestic product, one of the highest levels in NATO.

But his pro-Kremlin rivals say Latvia should stop any aid to Ukraine and should instead focus more on cost-of-living issues, particularly among his country's Russian-speaking minority.

"Our voters want peace, to stop looking for shelters, to no longer experience the air alerts", party leader Julia Stepanenko told Reuters. "The war must not be encouraged in any way, including by financing it... Ukraine must win, but through peace talks".

Polls open at 8 a.m. (0500 GMT) on Saturday and close at 8 p.m., with the first results expected within hours and the final result likely to be clear after midnight. The 100 members of the Saeima, or parliament, are being elected for a four-year term.

DIVIDED NATION

Surveys show at least two other parties may make it into parliament - the populist, MAGA-style Latvia First grouping and the Progressives, a left-leaning party that attracts younger voters.

Kulbergs' ability to forge a working coalition will depend largely on how many votes they receive and how many other parties cross the 5% threshhold to enter parliament.

He might also need to cobble together a deal with Latvia First leader, businessman Ainars Slesers, who appears to have shifted towards a more anti-Ukraine stance in recent months, courting votes on both sides.

"His message is that (the party) condemns Russia's invasion and stands with Ukraine, but that supporting Ukraine comes at the expense of Latvia's economy," said Roberts Kits, researcher for the Latvian Strategy and Economic Research Institute, in a note.

Latvia, with a population of 1.9 million, is sandwiched between the Baltic Sea, with EU and NATO allies Estonia and Lithuania to the north and south, and Russia and Belarus to the east.