Liberman's bet: the man who says no to Netanyahu, and means it

Avigdor Liberman does not do ambiguity, and with twelve days to go before Israel's October 27 election he has made his position plainer still. 

On Thursday he wrote on X that his party, Yisrael Beytenu, would not join a government led by Benjamin Netanyahu "under any circumstances." It would not back a minority government either, including a temporary one. Likud, he added, "without Netanyahu can be a significant partner."

So is a deal with Likud possible? Yes, on his terms: a different Likud leader, and a coalition made up "exclusively of Zionist parties." He ruled out Ra'am, the Joint List, Shas and United Torah Judaism by name. He also predicted that some Likud lawmakers would cross over to such a coalition after the vote, a forecast for which he offered no evidence and which no Likud figure has publicly endorsed.

The numbers explain why he is saying it so loudly. Yisrael Beytenu has been polling around 9 seats, with surveys ranging from 5 to 10, according to the Middle East Forum's poll of polls and The Jerusalem Post. 

The same average puts the Netanyahu bloc at 54 seats and the opposition at 53, with the Arab parties on 13. The majority line is 61. A Times of Israel poll had the two blocs tied at 53, both far short. In a deadlock like that, a party of 9 seats that refuses to move becomes a problem for everyone. The Jewish Chronicle says he could act as a kingmaker.

His platform has barely changed in years. He wants universal military or national service, which means drafting ultra-Orthodox men, less political clout for the religious parties, civil marriage and public transport on Shabbat in secular areas. On security he stays hawkish, whether the subject is Iran, Hamas or Hezbollah.

The biography helps explain the temperament. Born in Soviet Moldova, he arrived in Israel in 1978 at 20, speaking little Hebrew, and worked unloading luggage at Ben-Gurion Airport. 

He studied at the Hebrew University, joined Netanyahu's circle in 1988 and rose to director-general of Likud, then of the Prime Minister's Office after Netanyahu won in 1996. In 1999 he founded Yisrael Beytenu, first as a vehicle for Russian-speaking immigrants. 

Critics are less kind

It won four seats then and 15 in 2009. He went on to be foreign minister, deputy prime minister, defence minister and finance minister. 

In 2018 he quit the defence job after Netanyahu accepted a ceasefire with Hamas and a plan to let Qatari money into Gaza, which he called capitulation. In 2019 he refused to join a coalition without a meaningful draft law for the ultra-Orthodox, which triggered a fresh election.

Some analysts see this record as proof of consistency, a politician who kept his ideas while others changed sides again and again. 

Critics are less kind. The Jewish Chronicle notes that they say his rhetoric did not always match his conduct in office, and the government in which he served as finance minister in 2021, under Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, relied on Ra'am, the very party he now bars. The same article calls him "too secular for the religious right, too hawkish for the centre-left."

On October 27, we find out which of those descriptions is worth more to voters.