Libya’s oil exports threatened again as political tensions resurface

Libya’s oil sector—central to its economy and global energy markets—is once again under threat, as political divisions between rival governments raise the prospect of export disruptions. 

On May 29, the eastern-based administration announced it is considering declaring force majeure on several oil fields and terminals under its control, citing ongoing tensions with the western government in Tripoli.

While no specific incidents were detailed, the eastern authorities claim the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has been the target of “repeated assaults.

” The nature of these alleged attacks remains ambiguous, leaving open the possibility that the accusation may refer to administrative pressures or political interference, rather than physical threats. The NOC has since dismissed reports of attacks on its Tripoli headquarters and reassured international partners that operations remain unaffected.

Yet the threat alone reflects the enduring fragility of Libya’s post-conflict governance. The NOC, despite being the sole legal authority on oil exports, operates in a divided political landscape. 

Revenues from oil—accounting for 97% of Libya’s exports and over 90% of its public income—are centralized in Tripoli. This has long been a source of grievance for the eastern government, backed by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, which accuses the NOC of bias and exclusion from financial decision-making.

In response, officials in the east are now reportedly weighing the option of relocating the NOC’s administrative functions to areas under their control, such as Ras Lanuf or Brega. 

While such a move would be largely symbolic—it would not be recognized internationally—it reflects growing frustration with the current power imbalance and signals the potential for future institutional fragmentation.

The episode highlights a deeper reality: in Libya, oil remains both an economic lifeline and a political weapon. Every flare-up between east and west risks reigniting blockades, shutdowns, or armed standoffs at production sites.

 In August 2024, a similar breakdown in cooperation saw production fall below 500,000 barrels per day, sending shockwaves through the global oil market.

Since then, output had steadily recovered, reaching 1.38 million barrels per day by April 2025—the highest level in over a decade. 

This fragile rebound coincides with the return of international energy firms, including BP and Eni, after years of suspended operations due to conflict and insecurity. But renewed instability now places that recovery at risk.

The NOC’s recent reassurances are intended to signal stability. Yet Libya’s energy sector remains hostage to a broader political deadlock. 

As long as competing factions continue to vie for control over oil wealth—without a functioning national framework for revenue sharing and governance—the threat of disruption will persist, undermining both Libya’s economy and the confidence of global markets