Macron's Gulf tour: commitments abroad, combustion at home

French President Emmanuel Macron went to the Gulf to find diesel. He came back, or will, with promises.

The Élysée announced Tuesday that Macron had "secured" an extra 200,000 tonnes of diesel a month from the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Read closely, the claim is thinner than the headline. The UAE gave "commitments" on "about 100,000 tonnes a month." 

The second 100,000 tonnes, from Bahrain, was only to be "secured" during his stop there later in the afternoon, so the announcement came before the deal.

Adding 95,000 tonnes already pledged by Saudi Arabia, but only for October and November, the Élysée says France now has commitments for 295,000 tonnes a month, or "a little over 10%" of its diesel consumption. Kuwait, for its part, gave "very clear commitments" to deliver diesel and jet fuel to Mayotte and Réunion via Oman, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has been disrupted since the conflict between the United States and Iran began. The text gives no volumes for Kuwait.

Talks are also under way with regional countries to lower maritime insurance costs, so shipping companies can move more oil through the strait. Nothing has been agreed.

Then came the admission. The Élysée did not say what the deals would mean for pump prices. With the release of France's strategic stocks, it said, the effect on prices is one "we cannot quantify at this stage." In other words, the government is celebrating a supply deal that it cannot promise will lower what drivers pay. There is no guarantee that it will.

The Élysée's officials still boast of the results. At home, many politicians in Paris are denouncing the trip, which comes days after very serious riots in the capital and in many other cities. Macron has never been so unpopular. Some are calling for his resignation, six months before the end of his term.

A president who leaves for the Gulf while his own cities burn, and returns with commitments he cannot price, will find it hard to persuade the French that his priorities are theirs.