Normalization surprise? Syria and Lebanon may beat Saudi to the table

In a recent interview, Israel’s ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Michael Leiter, floated a surprising scenario: that Syria and Lebanon could formalize diplomatic relations with Israel before Saudi Arabia does.

“I’m very optimistic about the potential for an Abraham Accord with Syria and Lebanon,” Leiter said, suggesting a shift in the regional calculus that has long treated both nations as among Israel’s most intractable adversaries.

Leiter spoke candidly about what he sees as a transformed diplomatic landscape. “There’s no reason now why we wouldn’t be moving into accommodation with Syria and Lebanon,” he remarked, hinting at behind-the-scenes developments that may be reshaping traditional red lines.

While much attention has focused on whether and when Saudi Arabia will take the final step toward normalization—a process that advanced significantly during the Trump administration—Leiter suggested that momentum had slowed. 

“If President Trump had remained in office, we probably would’ve reached full normalization with Saudi Arabia by now,” he said, while noting that talks continue despite the ongoing war in Gaza complicating matters.

Turning to Lebanon, Leiter offered cautious hope. He described the country as having a chance to recover from its “failed state” status and reintegrate into the international community. “Lebanon has an opportunity to reassert itself as a civil society,” he said.

His comments on Syria were more guarded. Leiter criticized what he called premature efforts by the United States to relax sanctions on Damascus. “We need to see concrete actions—protection of minorities, dismantling of terrorist infrastructure—before any shift in sanctions policy,” he insisted.

According to Leiter, any diplomatic overtures must be tied to demonstrable progress. “There’s not a long history of jihadis becoming Jeffersonians,” he said bluntly. “We can’t allow jihadist groups on our borders. That’s a lesson we learned on October 7.”

He suggested that normalization with both Syria and Lebanon should be built on performance-based agreements, such as disbanding militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, and taking steps to protect vulnerable communities like the Druze and Alawites.

Speaking about Lebanon specifically, Leiter noted that Israel has already withdrawn troops from the border region and hinted at further de-escalation if Hezbollah is disarmed. “To the degree that Lebanon disarms Hezbollah, to that degree we’re moving towards accommodation and peace,” he said.

He also expressed deep concern over Qatar’s influence in the region, criticizing what he described as the West’s misplaced trust. “It’s unfortunate to see commentators framing Qatar as a Western ally,” he said. “They have an agenda, and it is not aligned with Western values.”

Leiter’s remarks reflect a broader willingness within parts of the Israeli leadership to consider unconventional diplomatic paths—and to redefine what normalization might look like in a region that continues to evolve rapidly.