‘Positive climate’ with Iran? Gulf States push dangerous illusion

Three Gulf states have mounted an eleventh-hour diplomatic offensive to prevent a potential US military strike on Iran, despite the Islamic Republic's decades-long record of deception and regional destabilization.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman worked to dissuade US President Donald Trump from attacking Iran and warned of "serious repercussions for the region," a senior Saudi official told AFP on Thursday. 

The three Gulf countries "conducted intense last-minute diplomatic efforts to convince President Trump to give Iran a chance to show its good intentions," the official said on condition of anonymity. "Communication continues to consolidate the confidence gained and the current positive climate," the official added.

The official's reference to a "positive climate" rings hollow against the backdrop of Iran's actual behavior. 

How does one speak of positivity when thousands have been killed in the brutal suppression of nationwide protests? 

How does one trust a regime that has systematically lied for decades while deploying proxy forces across the region to undermine stability? The notion that Iran deserves "a chance to show its good intentions" would be laughable if the stakes weren't so tragically high.

The Islamic Republic's track record speaks for itself: decades of nuclear duplicity, repeated violations of international agreements, concealed nuclear facilities, and obstructed inspectors. Tehran funds, arms, and directs Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza, destabilizing nations across the Middle East. 

The regime has massacred its own citizens who dare demand basic freedoms, from the 2009 Green Movement to the recent protests over Mahsa Amini's death. Iran has attacked oil tankers, seized vessels in international waters, launched drone and missile strikes on Saudi facilities, and threatened navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. This is the regime that Gulf states are now asking Trump to give "a chance."

Once again, the West demonstrates a staggering capacity for wishful thinking when it comes to Iran. The pattern is depressingly familiar: Iran engages in aggression or violates agreements, Western powers express "concern," negotiations begin with promises of Iranian "good behavior," Iran extracts concessions while continuing its malign activities, and the cycle repeats. 

The Gulf states' diplomatic intervention, while understandable given their geographic proximity to any potential conflict, reflects a dangerous miscalculation about Iranian intentions.

The timing of this diplomatic push is particularly galling. Even as Gulf diplomats speak of Iran's "good intentions" and a "positive climate," the bodies of Iranian protesters are still being buried. 

The regime that hangs dissidents from construction cranes, imprisons women for showing their hair, and funds terrorism across the region is not suddenly going to transform into a responsible regional actor because of gentle diplomatic persuasion. 

Tehran has mastered the art of playing for time—offering just enough diplomatic engagement to forestall consequences while continuing its nuclear program and regional destabilization in parallel.

Saudi Arabia's role in this diplomatic initiative is particularly puzzling. Riyadh has been a primary target of Iranian aggression, from the 2019 attacks on its oil facilities to Tehran's support for Houthi rebels who have launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Saudi territory. 

Yet now, Saudi officials speak of "consolidating confidence" with a regime that has repeatedly demonstrated its hostility toward the Kingdom. This represents either strategic calculation—preferring diplomacy to the uncertainties of regional war—or a fundamental misreading of Iranian behavior.

The West's chronic naivety toward Iran has already cost the region dearly. 

The 2015 nuclear deal, hailed as a diplomatic triumph, provided Tehran with billions in sanctions relief that funded its regional proxies and domestic repression while doing little to curb its nuclear ambitions. 

Now, as Trump weighs his options, Gulf states are essentially asking him to repeat the same mistake: trust Iran's promises, ignore its actions, and hope for the best.

Iran's "good intentions" have manifested as continued uranium enrichment far beyond civilian needs, ongoing support for terrorist organizations across the Middle East, violent suppression of peaceful protesters, threats to close international shipping lanes, development of ballistic missile capabilities, and seizure of foreign nationals as hostages for diplomatic leverage. 

This is not a regime deserving of another chance. It's a regime that has squandered every chance it's been given.

To be clear, military action against Iran would carry enormous risks and potentially catastrophic consequences. Gulf states are right to fear the repercussions of regional war. But preventing war through appeasement and wishful thinking about Iranian "good intentions" merely postpones the reckoning while allowing Tehran to grow stronger. 

The real question is not whether Iran deserves another chance—it demonstrably does not. The question is whether the international community is willing to impose meaningful costs for Iranian behavior or whether it will continue the pattern of diplomatic theater that has characterized Western policy toward Tehran for decades.

There is nothing positive about the current climate. Iran continues to enrich uranium, fund terrorism, and brutalize its own people. 

Thousands of Iranians have died for demanding basic freedoms. The regime's proxies continue to destabilize Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Speaking of "positive climate" and "good intentions" in this context isn't diplomacy, it's delusion. 

Gulf states may prefer diplomacy to war, and that preference is understandable. But genuine diplomacy requires honest assessment of the adversary's character and intentions. And on that score, Iran's decades-long record leaves no room for doubt.

Once again, the West, and now some of its regional allies—demonstrate a dangerous willingness to believe what they wish were true rather than what the evidence clearly shows. Iran has earned nothing but skepticism. 

Granting it yet another chance to demonstrate "good intentions" it has never possessed is not wisdom. It's negligence.