Saudi economy minister forecasts 2025 real GDP growth at 5.1%

Saudi Arabia's economy minister forecast real GDP growth of 5.1% for 2025, supported by the non-oil sector, as the kingdom accelerates efforts to diversify away from oil.

"We forecast to close the year...in terms of total real GDP growth at around 5.1% and for non-oil GDP around 3.8%," Faisal Alibrahim said, speaking on a panel at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh on Wednesday.

"But we need to acknowledge we are on a long term restructuring journey. We are prioritising diversifying our economy away from having to rely on oil, to become a more resilient economy that witnesses sustainable growth that's driven by productivity, not just by natural resources," Alibrahim said.

The ministry of finance has forecast real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2025, driven by the growth of non-oil activities, and 4.6% in 2026, also supported by the same factor. The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for economic growth in 2025 to 4% earlier this month on increased oil output.

The world's top oil exporter is in the midst of a massive economic transformation spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman - Vision 2030 - designed to increase non-oil growth and revenue, and reduce hydrocarbon dependence. Government ministers have called Vision 2030 the country's "north star".

But many of the plan's flagship projects have been delayed amid low oil prices and a budget deficit that has forced Saudi Arabia to prioritise some, while scaling back or delaying others.