Turkey-Qatar axis poses "Significant strategic threat"

A former senior Mossad official is warning that Turkey has outgrown its role as just another regional player, it's now angling to lead the entire Sunni axis, with Qatar as its financial muscle.

Sagiv Asulin, a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, argues the combination is dangerous: Turkey's expanding military capabilities paired with Qatar's money and information warfare. 

"We must take President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's statements against Israel seriously and maintain sustained diplomatic pressure on the United States, especially as some in Washington view Turkey as a strategic partner alongside Israel," he says.

His warning lands at a sensitive moment. Washington has been signaling openness to reopening Turkey's path back into the F-35 program, the same jets Ankara was booted from in 2019 after buying Russia's S-400 system. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already gone public with his opposition, telling CNN the move "would destroy the power balance in the Middle East, because Turkey, I think, has aggressive aspirations."

For Asulin, the mere fact that Washington is entertaining the idea should worry Jerusalem — regardless of whether a deal ever materializes. 

"Even if a potential F-35 deal remains far from becoming reality," he argues, the conversation itself signals a shift in how the US views Turkey's regional weight.

The concern isn't happening in a vacuum. Turkey has emerged as a key broker in the Gaza ceasefire architecture, deepened military ties across Libya, Syria, and the Horn of Africa, and is now part of a broader Saudi-led grouping with Qatar, Pakistan and Egypt, widely described in Israeli commentary as a rising "Sunni alliance." 

Combined with Erdoğan's increasingly vocal criticism of Israel, it's a picture that has Israeli defense planners on edge, even as officials in Washington weigh Turkey's value as a NATO ally against Israel's long-guarded qualitative military edge.