Why Gaza peace talks are now happening in Cairo

This Sunday’s meeting in Cairo between Israeli and Hamas delegations - facilitated by Trump-era figures Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner - isn’t just another round of Middle East peace talks. It’s a calculated realignment of regional diplomacy, one that puts Egypt back at the heart of conflict mediation.

And that shift carries major geopolitical weight.

The location of these talks is a geopolitical signal in itself. For years, Qatar has been the de facto host for negotiations with Hamas. Its close relationship with the group, and financial support for Gaza, made Doha the logical venue for ceasefire talks. But Egypt’s re-entry reflects a changing tide.

By choosing Cairo over Doha, the U.S. and Israel are endorsing a tougher, more security-oriented approach — one that’s more aligned with Egypt’s strategic posture. Egypt is not a neutral host. It’s a state actor with clear interests: contain Islamist movements, stabilize Gaza under controlled conditions, and reassert its influence in a region increasingly dominated by Gulf states.

Why Egypt — and Why Now?

Several factors explain this diplomatic recalibration:

- Hamas’s Diminishing Leverage: After years of isolation, internal divisions, and economic breakdown in Gaza, Hamas is under pressure. The group has fewer regional patrons than before, and Cairo knows it. Egypt is exploiting this leverage while maintaining limited engagement through intelligence channels.

- Sisi’s Security Doctrine: President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s regime sees Hamas through a domestic lens — as a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt considers an existential threat. But Sisi also understands the risks of an unstable Gaza. Egypt doesn’t want a humanitarian collapse on its border. So the goal is control, not chaos.

- U.S.-Israeli Confidence in Cairo: Unlike Qatar or Turkey, Egypt is seen by both the U.S. and Israel as predictable, even if authoritarian. The 2021 ceasefire brokered by Egypt was a reminder that Cairo still has influence — and credibility with all sides, including actors it distrusts.

- Trump’s Strategic Legacy Play: For the Trump camp, this is about more than peace. It’s about positioning allies — and legacy projects — ahead of 2024. Bringing Egypt into the fold gives the appearance of broader regional consensus, especially among U.S.-aligned Sunni regimes.

Let’s be clear: this process is not about Palestinian sovereignty or a two-state solution. 

The Trump-Kushner vision for peace — rooted in the Abraham Accords — is transactional. It prioritizes normalization with Arab states and economic development over political self-determination.

Egypt fits neatly into that model. It offers stability, access, and military control. But it won’t push for concessions Hamas or the Palestinian Authority would consider legitimate. 

The focus is on demilitarizing Gaza, restoring a baseline level of calm, and integrating the enclave into a managed regional framework — not resolving the deeper conflict.

Egypt’s return to center stage also carries risks. If talks collapse or lead to another round of violence, Cairo could lose credibility. 

Sisi’s regime is already dealing with domestic economic pressures and political unrest. Becoming the public face of a failed or one-sided peace effort could backfire.

Moreover, too close an alignment with Trump-aligned figures could create friction with the Biden administration, which has taken a more cautious approach to the conflict — and to Sisi’s human rights record.

Egypt isn’t chasing peace out of principle — it’s pursuing influence out of necessity. 

In a region where Gulf money and Iranian proxies dominate headlines, Egypt is reminding the world that it still holds a key card: geography, intelligence reach, and a military that can enforce order on its terms.

The Cairo talks may not deliver a transformative peace, but they mark a shift in how - and by whom - the future of Gaza is being negotiated.