Brazil votes in local elections with eyes on 2026 presidential showdown

Brazilians vote on Sunday for mayors and city councilors in more than 5,500 municipal elections, with polls showing conservative candidates running strong in several major cities, setting the country's political landscape ahead of a 2026 presidential race.

All eyes are on the election for mayor of Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest city, where three candidates are running neck-and-neck after an aggressive campaign.

Center-right incumbent Mayor Ricardo Nunes, who led the race until last week, is tied for second place at 26% of the votes with far-right digital influencer Pablo Marçal, an unprecedented split in the conservative vote, according to a poll on Saturday.

Leftist Guilherme Boulos, who is supported by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his Workers Party, has edged forward on the eve of the election and is leading the field with 29%, pollster Datafolha found.

Marçal, an anti-establishment political novice who has surged in the polls with his vitriolic attacks on adversaries, ran a social media campaign with little funding and no TV time. He has headlined the news for three weeks since a furious fifth-placed candidate hit him with a chair during a televised debate.

Polls showed that candidates linked to Lula are facing trouble as the president's popularity has slipped in his third non-consecutive term. He has largely avoided taking to the campaign trail for mayoral candidates, although their success would boost his chances in 2026, when he is expected to run for re-election.

On the right, candidates associated with hard-right former President Jair Bolsonaro have fared better, even though he was banned from seeking elected office until 2030 for his unfounded attacks on Brazil's voting system.

"The anti-establishment views of the right have become the trend," said political risk expert Creomar de Souza.

Lula's Workers Party is at risk of not winning a single state capital, which would be unprecedented since its rise to prominence in the past quarter century, said Andre Cesar, analyst at Hold Legislative Advisors.

"Brazil's political map is being redrawn," he said.

Both analysts said Lula likely kept his campaigning to a minimum to avoid being associated with losing candidates.

Bolsonaro also stayed away from the Sao Paulo campaign, which complicated his alliances. He officially endorsed Nunes for re-election, but avoided recording a video for his campaign.

Bolsonaro appeared to distance himself from Nunes as the anti-establishment candidate Marçal grew in the polls from a dark horse to within a whisker of the runoff.

Voting starts at 8 a.m. (1100 GMT) and closes at 5 p.m. (2000 GMT). To win outright in the first round, candidates for mayor of cities of 200,000 inhabitants or more need to gain more than 50% of valid votes.