Daniel Noboa expected to triumph in Ecuador presidential race on security promises

Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa looks likely to win Sunday's presidential election, as voters rally behind his promises to fight crime, despite critiques from his opponents that he has not done enough and the possibility the vote could move to a run-off.

Noboa, first elected in 2023 to finish out his predecessor's term, says his deployment of the military on the streets and within prisons, among other measures, has reduced violent deaths by 15%, led to a drastic fall in prison violence, and facilitated the capture of major gang leaders.

His 15 opponents have said that more needs to be done to fight the drug trade-related crime that has rocked Ecuador in recent years, but some of their proffered solutions would require tricky legislative approval or constitutional changes. Noboa says he is already implementing other policy ideas, like increased security at borders and ports.

"Today Ecuador has changed and wants to keep changing, it wants to consolidate its triumph. We are not a promise anymore, we are a reality in this country, which has taken a decision," Noboa said at a closing campaign rally on Thursday in Quito. "This Sunday, reclaim your ability to dream."

"I voted for Noboa because I have faith in the president. We must continue believing in his good work. You can't solve all the problems in a year," said street vender Franco Delgado, 38, after voting in Guayaquil.

Noboa, the 37-year-old heir to a business fortune, has said that he intends to win outright on Sunday. Two major opinion polls have indicated he could - either by getting more than 50% of the vote or by winning at least 40% while being 10 points ahead of his nearest rival.

Other surveys suggest he will not win outright on Sunday but would triumph in an April run-off against leftist Luisa Gonzalez, who he also faced in 2023.

Both candidates have urged their voters to watch counts at polling stations in an effort to prevent any fraud. Gonzalez doubled down on Sunday on her critique of Diana Atamaint, the head of the national electoral council, saying she has allowed Noboa to ignore campaigning rules.

Atamaint said on Sunday that every vote will be respected.

Initial results from the electoral council are expected around 7:30 p.m. local time (00:30 GMT).

Gonzalez says she would respond to crime with major military and police operations, pursue corrupt judges and prosecutors, and implement a social spending plan in the most violent areas.

"We can't talk about controlling violence without thinking of social justice, of building an Ecuador with peace, not with war," said Gonzalez, 47, who is a protege of former President Rafael Correa, as she closed her campaign in Guayaquil. "We'll save ourselves together."

Correa said this week that Gonzalez is ahead in polling and that her winning in a first round was not impossible.

"We need a real person to govern the country. A rich boy is never going to understand the needs of the poor. He doesn't know what it's like to go to bed hungry," said receptionist Mirella Parrales, 26, in Guayaquil. "I'm sure Luisa (Gonzalez) will change the reality of this country."

Noboa has announced several eleventh-hour policies seemingly designed to attract voter attention, including help for migrants who return from the United States, tariffs on Mexican imports and a trade deal with Canada.

Noboa has been mired in a long-running spat with his vice president, most recently over whether and how he could take campaign leave.

Voters will also elect 151 members of the national assembly legislature.