Erdogan’s climate showcase

World leaders and negotiators gather in Turkey from Monday for the UN climate summit, which runs until November 20. The talks face deep divisions over geopolitics, finance and fossil fuels. 

For President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, they are also a chance to shine on the world stage.

Turkey expects more than 100,000 people in the Mediterranean resort of Antalya for COP31, the annual UN climate conference.

The stakes have rarely been higher. Heatwaves have swept Europe and deadly floods have hit Nepal. El Niño, the natural weather pattern that worsens droughts and floods, could reach record strength this year. Most scientists, and the UN itself, now accept that the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit will be breached, at least temporarily.

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has sent fuel prices soaring. For many governments, securing oil and gas has become a strategic priority again, although renewable energy is also gaining from the price shock.

Expectations for the negotiations themselves are modest. The official agenda is largely technical, and no major breakthrough is expected. With no consensus on new binding targets, Ankara hopes to collect voluntary commitments from countries instead.

Turkey has set around ten priority themes, including waste management and oceans. Electrification could emerge as the summit’s signature issue.

The money fight

As every year, finance will be a flashpoint. Developing countries want funding to grow without polluting. India has said rich countries have an “obligation” to pay. The African Group of Negotiators has already demanded that adaptation finance be added to the official agenda.

The United States, barring a surprise, will again stay away. The Trump administration has pulled out of the climate talks.

A showcase for Ankara

For Erdogan, COP31 is as much about prestige as about climate. Hosting tens of thousands of delegates, ministers and heads of state offers Turkey a rare diplomatic showcase, and a platform to present itself as a bridge between North and South, East and West.

Ankara hopes to turn the summit into a public relations win for Erdogan’s government, at a time when its domestic record and foreign policy face criticism abroad.

Whether the talks deliver for the climate may matter less to the hosts than how Turkey looks on the world stage.