Erdoğan's credibility gap in the Middle East

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun arrived in Ankara on Thursday for an official visit during which he is due to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to discuss economic and security cooperation.

The visit, made at Erdoğan's invitation, is expected to focus primarily on economic and energy issues, alongside broader questions about the Lebanon-Turkey relationship.

Aoun is traveling with a small delegation of presidential advisers, without any ministers, and no bilateral treaties are expected to be signed. Lebanese and Turkish sources said the talks would center on clarifying the political relationship between Beirut and Ankara, including Turkish concerns over Lebanon's regional positioning, and on discussing possibilities for expanded military and diplomatic cooperation.

The meeting is also expected to give Aoun a chance to reassure Erdoğan that Lebanon's engagement with Cyprus and other regional actors is not directed against Turkey, and to explain Beirut's approach to its negotiations with Israel - presented by Lebanese officials as an effort to secure an Israeli withdrawal and reinforce state sovereignty, rather than to build a strategic alliance with Israel.

In exchange for greater clarity on Lebanon's regional stance, Turkey is reportedly prepared to expand its support for the Lebanese state, particularly the Lebanese Armed Forces.

President Erdoğan is doing everything he can to expand Turkey's sphere of influence in the Middle East. But his deep-seated hostility toward Israel severely undermines his credibility as a potential broker in resolving the region's conflicts.