European defense realpolitik: Israeli arms exports surge despite diplomatic strains

Despite escalating international criticism over its military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen, Israel saw a record-breaking year in defense exports in 2024—much of it fueled by European buyers. 

The paradox is striking: while several European governments publicly censure Israel’s wartime conduct, their defense ministries are simultaneously signing high-value procurement deals with Israeli defense firms.

According to newly released data from Israel’s Defense Ministry, exports reached 52 billion shekels (~$14 billion USD), a 13% increase from the previous year. 

More than half of those deals exceeded $100 million, and over half were with European Union member states—an unprecedented figure that marks a dramatic jump from 2023, when Europe accounted for just 35% of Israeli arms exports.

Strategic Anxiety and the U.S. Retreat

This uptick is rooted in Europe’s changing security landscape. Since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the perception of vulnerability across the continent has deepened. 

Compounding that is a shift in U.S. strategic posture, with the Trump administration signaling diminished American military commitments to NATO. In this environment, European countries are investing heavily in proven, off-the-shelf defense systems.

Israeli technologies—particularly its missile and air defense systems like Iron Dome, Arrow, and David’s Sling—are combat-tested and perceived as highly effective. 

These systems alone accounted for 48% of Israel’s defense exports in 2024, up from 36% the year prior.

Political Criticism vs. Strategic Continuity

The rapid growth in European-Israeli defense ties underlines a fundamental truth in international affairs: the divide between public diplomacy and strategic reality. 

While Israel faces sharp criticism in international forums and global media, especially over the humanitarian toll in Gaza, this has not translated into material disengagement by state actors.

On the contrary, state-to-state defense relationships are intensifying. Values-based diplomacy may shape headlines and resolutions, but it is realpolitik, threat perception, and financial interest that shape procurement decisions.

Isolation Narrative Undermined

This development further calls into question the often-repeated claim that Israel is facing “unprecedented international isolation.” 

While Israel is certainly under political pressure—particularly in symbolic venues like the UN General Assembly or the International Court of Justice—the empirical evidence of state behavior paints a different picture.

Defense contracts, intelligence sharing, and covert security cooperation all suggest that Israel’s strategic relevance remains intact, even among its critics. 

The notion of isolation may serve domestic or diplomatic purposes, but it does not align with the conduct of governments making multi-billion-dollar defense decisions.

War Objectives and Strategic Calculations

Importantly, Israel should not allow alarmist rhetoric about global isolation to deter it from pursuing its military objectives—particularly when those objectives are rooted in national defense and deterrence. 

The past year has shown that countries may object rhetorically to Israeli military actions while continuing—or even accelerating—strategic cooperation.

In fact, a militarily successful and secure Israel has historically served as a foundation for diplomatic engagement, especially with Arab states. 

From the peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan to the Abraham Accords with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, it has been Israeli military strength—not concession or vulnerability—that has created the conditions for normalization.

Strategic actors in the Arab world—many of whom share Israel’s concerns about Iran, terrorism, and regional instability—are watching Israel’s performance closely. 

The clearer it becomes that Israel can decisively defend its interests and emerge from conflict with enhanced deterrence, the more credible it becomes as a partner, even to former adversaries.

Shifting Regional Dynamics

While the share of exports to Abraham Accords countries declined from 23% in 2022 to 12% in 2024, this reflects short-term caution more than strategic retraction. 

In the long term, these relationships are likely to deepen, especially if Israel maintains regional superiority and continues offering defense solutions aligned with Gulf security interests.

At the same time, Asia-Pacific demand has declined slightly to 23%, and North American sales remain stable at 9%. Meanwhile, exports in emerging areas—like space, radar, and electronic warfare—are rising, signaling Israel’s ability to adapt to evolving market needs.

Strategic Resilience over Symbolic Pressure

Israel’s 2024 export data provides a critical counterpoint to narratives of international marginalization. 

Far from being sidelined, Israel is increasingly embedded in global security architectures, particularly among European states facing external threats.

Rather than constraining Israeli action, the supposed threat of diplomatic isolation is often overstated and disconnected from the actual calculations of defense ministries and intelligence communities. 

In the balance between condemnation and cooperation, it is the latter that continues to define Israel’s international relationships.

For policymakers in Jerusalem, the lesson is clear: Israel’s strategic strength and operational credibility remain its most effective tools—not just for deterrence and defense, but for fostering long-term diplomatic and economic ties.