Friedrich Merz, the veteran politician tipped to be Germany's next chancellor

Ten weeks away from elections and with a double-digit lead over his closest rival's party, conservative leader Friedrich Merz is getting used to being feted as Germany's next Chancellor.

The 68-year-old, whose trip to Kyiv this week highlighted his growing stature, faces an ill-tempered country mired in its worst economic crisis in decades and must balance satisfying traditional conservative supporters with taking his party rightwards to wrestle back votes from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

Standing alongside Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Merz on Monday tore into Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his refusal to send Ukraine more powerful missiles and forcing it to "fight with one hand behind its back". He also urged Europe's leaders to prepare for Donald Trump's presidency.

"We want your army to be capable of hitting military bases in Russia. Not the civilian population, not infrastructure, but the military targets from which your country is being attacked," he told Zelenskiy.

Former conservative legislator Andreas Nick said he detects a new care in how Merz chooses his words.

"He clearly feels whatever he says has to be weighed against the fact that he might soon be Chancellor."    

Merz was initially seen as a transitional leader for the conservatives. When Angela Merkel stood down after almost 19 years as party chair, he was defeated by other candidates in 2018 and in 2021, before finally winning the post in 2022.

Admirers praise Merz as a tactician. The collapse of Scholz's government in November came after his legal challenge to last year's budget precipitated the funding crisis that wrecked an already unwieldy three-way coalition.

In his campaign so far, Merz's economic prescriptions have focused on tax cuts, deregulation and incentives to work.

He has also hinted that he might loosen a constitutional spending cap - whose stringency it was that made his legal challenge so devastating - to win over voters angered at the state of Germany's infrastructure while promising that any change would finance investment, not spending.

A protege of Wolfgang Schaeuble, finance minister and icon of fiscal conservatism, Merz rose to CDU parliamentary leader in the 2000s, before becoming one of several powerful men dispatched by Merkel.

He quit parliament after she became chancellor and has never held government office. He worked for 15 years as a lobbyist and board member in companies including the Germany branches of asset manager Blackrock and HSBC bank, as well as the publicly-owned Cologne-Bonn airport. Merz is a hobby pilot who owns two aeroplanes.

CONTROVERSIES  

Tall and wiry with a sonorous baritone, Merz has come in for criticism more than once for how he refers to migrants, such as when on a television talkshow in January 2023 he referred to boys from ethnic minority backgrounds as "little pashas". 

He later defended the comment in a television interview saying there were significant problems in schools, with teachers not being shown respect, and it was necessary to raise these issues.

His comment coincided with a dip in the polls for the conservatives. On another occasion he dismayed some supporters when he suggested Ukrainian war refugees were arriving to collect benefits. He later apologised, saying his use of the phrase "social tourism" was inaccurate and insensitive.

"I try to express my political views in plain language, and I admit that I don't always manage that with perfect dictionary precision," he told an interviewer last week.

As the elections near and foreign leaders start to call him more regularly, observers detect a new seriousness and discipline on messaging in a man who is now within striking distance of fulfilling his decades-old ambition of becoming chancellor.    

Fickle voters and crowded party landscapes in which small shifts can upend rankings are making electoral upsets more common worldwide. Support for the SPD is creeping up, but at 16% in a poll last week it is still half the conservatives' 32%.

Whereas Merz long trailed Scholz in personal approval polls, he has for a while been seen as the better candidate, even if his personal popularity lags his party's.

An October poll found 56% of men favoured him, 30% Scholz. The Social Democrat was more popular with women however, with 44% preferring him while 41% chose Merz. 

"He's a very old-fashioned guy who is trying very hard to appear more 21st century," said political scientist Kai Arzheimer.

Some of Merz's gaffes stem from him having cut his teeth in an earlier era of male-dominated politics more than two decades ago, sceptics in his party say. In an internet TV interview with German newspaper Bild in 2020, asked about the idea of a gay chancellor, he said sexual orientation was not the public's concern "provided it's legal and doesn't involve children."

Widely criticised, also from within his own party, Merz later said his comments had been misinterpreted and twisted.

Despite the controversies, even opponents note the courtliness and generosity of a man who, with his wife, a judge, celebrated his 50th birthday by endowing a foundation to award educational scholarships to deprived children in his hometown.