Iran, conscription and 61 seats: the keys to Israel’s election

As Israelis vote today in a closely fought general election, Jacques Lemoisson, head of the economic intelligence firm Gate Advisory, believes Benjamin Netanyahu’s fate will hinge less on his own party’s score than on his ability to build a coalition.

According to Lemoisson, the October 27 election remains wide open, and two issues could tip the balance and shape the next government.

The first is Iran and national security. Netanyahu is leaning heavily on his geopolitical experience, casting the Iranian threat as an existential challenge for Israel. It is familiar terrain for the long-serving prime minister, who has made the fight against Tehran the centrepiece of his campaign.

The second is the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men. Their exemption from military service has become politically explosive, Lemoisson notes, in a country where the army and its reservists have endured years of mobilisation. The issue directly threatens Netanyahu’s traditional alliance with the ultra-Orthodox parties.

For Lemoisson, the real question is not how many seats Likud wins, but whether Netanyahu can assemble a majority of 61 lawmakers in the 120-seat Knesset. Despite the wear and tear of years in power and criticism of his handling of the conflicts, he believes another victory remains possible.

Markets on alert

The Gate Advisory chief also highlights the stakes for investors. 

In his view, the election is an immediate geopolitical catalyst, particularly for oil prices, regional risk premiums and the prospects of a renewed confrontation with Iran.