In a development few foresaw, the Lebanese army has made substantial headway in asserting state authority over southern Lebanon, an area long dominated by Hezbollah.
This shift, quietly facilitated by intelligence cooperation from Israel via American intermediaries, has recalibrated the region’s balance of power—and caught both Jerusalem and Washington by surprise.
Following a ceasefire reached with Israel late last year, Lebanese forces began a campaign aimed at curbing Hezbollah’s military footprint in the south.
By most accounts, they’ve been unexpectedly successful. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam recently declared that 80% of the army’s objectives in the region had been met, underscoring his government’s intent that “the state should have a monopoly on arms.”
Israeli intelligence reportedly played a pivotal role in this transformation. Funneled through U.S. channels, it enabled the Lebanese army to uncover and dismantle a significant number of weapons caches and operational sites tied to Hezbollah.
While some seized materials were destroyed, others have been absorbed into the Lebanese army’s under-resourced arsenal.
The result has been a rare reassertion of central authority in areas south of the Litani River—a region historically outside Beirut’s control.
The campaign gained additional traction after Israel’s two-month offensive that severely disrupted Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure, leaving the group politically exposed and militarily weakened.
Officials in Lebanon suggest the organization has even relinquished its security presence at critical infrastructure points, including Beirut International Airport—a highly symbolic concession.
While the move is unprecedented, many within Lebanon’s government remain cautious, recognizing that Hezbollah’s roots run deep, particularly in the country’s Shiite heartlands.
Israeli defense sources expressed both surprise and approval over the Lebanese army’s recent effectiveness, viewing it as a potential inflection point.
At the same time, the Lebanese government is attempting to extend its gains beyond Hezbollah. A multi-phase plan aims to disarm other non-state actors, including Palestinian militant groups. Notably, authorities in April arrested members of a Palestinian cell linked to cross-border rocket fire—an act almost unheard of in Lebanon’s sensitive sectarian and political landscape.
Yet challenges loom. Hezbollah’s real base of power lies north of the Litani, where its influence remains intact.
Analysts suggest the group’s current cooperation may be tactical, motivated less by ideology than by the need for international legitimacy and access to badly needed reconstruction funds. Western and Gulf donors have made clear that future aid hinges on Hezbollah’s diminished influence.
Geopolitical dynamics have also played a role in Hezbollah’s recent recalibration. The fall of Syria’s Assad regime last December, and the installation of a government hostile to Hezbollah, disrupted key arms routes from Iran.
Shared Interests, Separate Agendas
Additionally, increased oversight at Beirut’s airport has choked off smuggling revenues, further eroding the group’s capacity.
Despite the army’s recent advances, the Lebanese state remains fragile. Sectarian fault lines run deep, and the military itself is a reflection of the country’s confessional makeup—comprised of Sunni, Shiite, Christian, and Druze soldiers.
Open conflict with Hezbollah could fracture the force or ignite broader civil unrest, something Beirut is eager to avoid.
Still, Prime Minister Salam has signaled resolve. “We don’t want to put the country onto a civil war track,” he said, “but believe me, this is not going to affect our commitment to extend and consolidate the authority of the state.”
Hezbollah, for its part, has offered only vague responses. A senior member of the group described its remaining arms as a “point of strength” for Lebanon, suggesting it has no intention of full disarmament.
Whether the Lebanese government can maintain momentum—or whether Hezbollah is simply regrouping—remains an open question.
What is clear, however, is that for the first time in years, the monopoly on violence in southern Lebanon no longer rests with Hezbollah alone.