Majority of French want new elections if government falls, polls show

Most French people want new national elections, opinion polls showed on Wednesday, after opposition parties said they would bring down the minority government in a confidence vote next month, throwing the euro zone's second economy back into crisis.

The polling points to deepening dissatisfaction with politics, and a risk of lasting uncertainty, in a country that has had only minority cabinets and fragmented parliaments since President Emmanuel Macron was re-elected in 2022.

Macron, whose term runs until 2027, has repeatedly ruled out resigning or calling new parliamentary elections and, though he has not publicly commented on either since Monday, he seems more likely to replace Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, who on Monday announced the confidence vote over his 2026 budget plans.

However, a vast majority of French people want parliament dissolved for another vote, separate surveys by Ifop, Elabe and Toluna Harris Interactive pollsters showed, with rates varying between 56% and 69%.

The anti-immigration, far-right National Rally (RN) got the most backing to lead the next government in one poll, although not a majority. Two-thirds of people surveyed also wanted Macron to resign.

Centrist Bayrou is trying to tame debt that has risen to 113.9% of GDP and a deficit that was nearly double the EU's 3% limit last year, but the announcement triggered a steep market selloff, narrowing the gap between French and Italian 10-year bond yields.

Macron did not discuss the option of dissolving parliament during a weekly cabinet meeting on Wednesday, government spokeswoman Sophie Primas said.

Instead, he backed Bayrou's strategy, she said, adding that Macron saw no reason to be in denial, nor to overdramatise, France's fiscal situation.

SPENDING FREEZE

Bayrou called the confidence vote in a bid to get ahead of a likely no-confidence vote the opposition was preparing to table later in the year.

That immediately backfired, with opposition parties saying they would vote him out. While they agree France's deficit and debt are too high, the opposition disagree with him on how to tackle the problem and refuse to back him.

Bayrou is proposing a 44 billion euro budget squeeze. He wants to scrap two public holidays and freeze most public spending.

An Elabe poll for BFM TV showed 67% wanted Macron to resign if Bayrou loses the confidence vote. The Ifop poll for LCI showed a similar result.

A Toluna Harris Interactive poll for RTL showed 41% would want the far-right RN to lead the next government - the highest score for any party but without a majority. Some 59% were against having an RN prime minister.

The second-highest score, at 38%, was for a non-career politician to take the role.

"We want to stress that, in any case, both scenarios (i.e. new PM or snap elections) would likely mean a prolonged period of uncertainty," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note.

There is indeed no guarantee, under either scenario that any new prime minister would be able to pass the budget.

Then a political outsider, Macron was first elected in 2017 on promises to break the right-left divide and modernise France with growth-friendly tax cuts and reforms.

Successive crises - including protests, COVID-19 and runaway inflation - have shown he has failed to change the country's overspending habit.

More protests have been called for September 10, two days after the confidence vote, by various groups with disparate aims on social media and backed by leftist parties and some unions.