MENA equities set for gains under Trump victory, J.P. Morgan predicts

Donald Trump's re-election could boost emerging markets equities in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region because of a potentially stronger dollar, higher U.S. bond yields and global trade policy shifts, J.P.Morgan said on Tuesday.

"We prefer dollar-pegged MENA over EM FX dependent non-MENA in CEEMEA (Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa)," analysts led by David Aserkoff said.

The two biggest unknowns for CEEMEA region's equities in 2025 are U.S. tariff policies and the China stimulus, they said.

Trump's sweeping victory in the U.S. presidential election has brought into sharp focus his campaign pledge to impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60%.

Tariffs will push the U.S. dollar and bond yields higher, which would benefit the MENA region, J.P.Morgan said.

They would also likely push cheaper Chinese exports into the rest of the world, it said.

The MENA region appears the "clear winner" as it lacks a big manufacturing sector, but Chinese shipments would be negative for the rest of CEEMEA region, particularly Poland and Turkey, J.P.Morgan said.

The Wall Street brokerage upgraded Greek equity markets to "overweight" from "neutral" on the back of "decent" economic growth and strong quarterly earnings.

It maintained an "overweight" stance on South Africa and UAE, while reiterating its "neutral" rating for Saudi Arabia and Turkey and an "underweight" rating for Poland.