Poland's Trzaskowski on course for tight presidential election win

Liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski appeared set for a razor-thin win in Poland's presidential election on Sunday, an exit poll showed, in a vote seen as a test of the nation's support for a pro-European course versus Donald Trump-style nationalism.

An exit poll by Ipsos for broadcasters TVN, TVP and Polsat showed Trzaskowski of the ruling centrists Civic Coalition (KO) winning 50.3% of ballots. His rival, a conservative historian and amateur boxer, Karol Nawrocki, backed by nationalists Law and Justice (PiS), was at 49.7%.

Official results were due on Monday, although a late poll that mixes some results with exit surveys was expected to be published overnight. The exit poll carries a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

Trzaskowski, 53, campaigned on a promise to help the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk complete its democratic reforms, which they both say aim to repair an erosion of checks and balances under the previous nationalist government that lost power in 2023.

"We won," he told jubilant party members after the exit surveys came out. "I will bring people together, I will be constructive, I will be a president for all Poles. I will be your president."

Parliament holds most of the power in Poland, but the president can veto legislation, so the vote is being watched closely in neighbouring Ukraine, as well as in Russia, the U.S. and across the European Union.

Both candidates agreed on the need to spend heavily on defence, as U.S. President Donald Trump is demanding from Europe, and to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia's three-year-old invasion.

But while Trzaskowski sees Ukraine's future membership of NATO as essential for Poland's security, Nawrocki said recently that if he were president he would not ratify it because of the danger of the alliance being drawn into war with Russia.

Nawrocki, who draws inspiration from Trump and his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, said it was too early to call Trzaskowski's victory.

"We will win and we will save Poland," he said. "We will not allow for Donald Tusk's power to be all-encompassing and the monopoly of evil power ... which takes away our great dreams ...to become complete."

CONSERVATIVE VALUES

Coming around a year and a half since Tusk, a former president of the European Council, took office, the vote provides the toughest test yet of support for his broad coalition government, with Nawrocki presenting the ballot as a referendum on its actions.

The first round of the election on May 18 saw a surge in support for the anti-establishment far-right, suggesting that the KO-PiS duopoly that has dominated Polish politics for a generation may be starting to fracture.

Nevertheless, after a tumultuous campaign in which Nawrocki in particular faced a slew of negative media reports about his alleged past conduct, once again candidates representing the two main parties faced off in the second round.

PiS has traditionally enjoyed high support in small towns and rural areas, especially in the south and east. These areas are typically more socially conservative than larger cities and poorer, creating a sense of exclusion that PiS has tapped into.

KO, meanwhile, campaigns on a pro-European centrist agenda that appeals to more liberal-minded Poles who mainly live in cities or bigger towns.

Social issues were also at stake in the election. Trzaskowski has said he wanted to see Poland's near total ban on abortion eased, something that outgoing nationalist President Andrzej Duda strongly opposed.