Renewed tensions in Libya as Haftar's troops mobilize

Recent movements of troops loyal to Khalifa Haftar, the strongman of eastern Libya, towards southwestern regions controlled by the rival government in Tripoli, recognized by the UN, have rekindled fears of a return to civil war, four years after a ceasefire was established.

On Thursday, Salaheddine al-Namrouch, Deputy Chief of Staff, instructed the army units to be on high alert and prepared to repel any potential attack in the southwest, as reported by a source from the Government of National Unity (GNU) to the Libya al-Ahrar channel.

Since the fall and death of dictator Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has been mired in fratricidal violence and divisions. The country is currently governed by two rival executives: one in Tripoli (west), led by Abdelhamid Dbeibah, and the other in the east, represented by the Parliament and affiliated with Marshal Haftar, based in Benghazi.

Haftar, supported militarily by foreign allies (Russia, Egypt, and the UAE), launched a brutal offensive from April 2019 to June 2020 to capture Tripoli. However, he was stopped at the outskirts of the capital by GNU forces, backed by Turkey.

Despite ongoing political disputes and frequent deadly clashes between armed groups, the ceasefire signed in October 2020 has largely been respected since Haftar's forces were repelled.

On Thursday, the High Council of State (HCE), based in Tripoli and acting as a senate, expressed "great concern" over the recent military mobilizations by Haftar's forces in the southwest. These moves are seen as a clear attempt to strengthen Haftar's influence and extend his control over strategic areas bordering neighboring countries.

"These troop movements are likely to reignite armed conflicts and pose a direct threat to the 2020 ceasefire," the HCE stated, warning that such actions undermine efforts to unify the military institutions and could lead to the collapse of the political process.

Strategic Aims and Regional Implications

Libya expert Emad Badi from the Atlantic Council noted that western Libya is now in significant turmoil due to Haftar's mobilization, which some view as a precursor to a potential offensive on Tripoli. Analysts and local media suggest that the mobilization aims to capture the Ghadames airport, located 650 km southwest of Tripoli and currently under Tripoli's control.

Seizing Ghadames, a strategic area at the intersection of Libya's borders with Algeria and Tunisia, would signify a breach of the 2020 ceasefire, according to Badi. The private television channel al-Ahrar reported on Wednesday that pro-Haftar forces were heading towards southwestern Libya.

Controlling Ghadames would offer Haftar's camp several advantages: preventing movements from Dbeibah's supporters towards the south, isolating Dbeibah, and stripping his interior minister, Imad Trabelsi, of the valuable asset of controlling this border area, as explained by Jalel Harchaoui, an associate researcher at the British Royal United Services Institute.

Haftar's forces have coveted the Ghadames airport and its surroundings for years, as controlling it would significantly enhance Haftar's territorial leverage against Algeria, Tunisia, and Niger, Harchaoui noted. The eastern camp would then control the entire south, from east to west.

On Tuesday, Saddam Haftar, Khalifa Haftar's son, announced a "comprehensive operation" to "secure the country's southern borders and reinforce stability in these strategic areas," alongside deploying patrols to monitor the border with neighboring countries. Libya is bordered by Sudan to the southeast, Chad to the south, Niger to the southwest, Algeria to the west, and Tunisia to the northwest.

As these developments unfold, the international community and local populations remain on edge, fearing a return to widespread conflict and the potential collapse of the fragile peace established in 2020.