Romania's leftist PM and far-right leader ahead in presidential race, poll shows

Romania's leftist Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu and the head of an opposition far-right party are in the lead ahead of a presidential election this month and so would face each other in the runoff second round, an opinion poll showed on Thursday.

Conducted by pollster INSCOP, the survey showed 56-year-old Social Democrat leader Ciolacu gaining 25.3% of the vote in the first round on Nov. 24, with George Simion, leader of the Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) placed second with 19.1%.

The runoff takes place on Dec. 8, and there is a parliamentary election sandwiched between the two rounds, on Dec. 1.

The president's powers include oversight of foreign policy, and the winner will play a critical role in determining how committed the country remains to supporting neighbouring Ukraine in its war against Russia.

Ciolacu strongly supports Ukraine and the country's EU and NATO membership. Simion opposes aid to Ukraine, particularly military.

The winner will also nominate the next prime minister, which complicates policymaking and the political outlook.

Elena Lasconi, a two-term mayor and leader of the centre-right opposition Save Romania Union (USR) would get 14.3% of the vote in the first round, the INSCOP poll showed.

Former NATO deputy secretary general Mircea Geoana – running as an independent – would get 13.3% support, while Nicolae Ciuca, leader of the Liberals who govern in coalition with Ciolacu's Social Democrats, would get 9.1%.

The poll, conducted on behalf of daily Libertatea, surveyed 1,100 people between Nov. 7-12.

INSCOP Research director Remus Stefureac said the centre-right candidates, who include Ciuca, Lasconi and several others, were neutralizing each other by fragmenting their electorate.

Ciolacu is most likely to win the second round when facing off against Simion, the survey showed. A Social Democrat leader has not been president in Romania since 2004.

However, analysts and sociologists said Ciuca could beat Simion for a spot in the runoff, with the help of the Liberal party infrastructure and large number of Liberal mayors.

"Objectively speaking, looking at several sets of data, the first battle is between Ciuca and Simion for the second place," said political commentator Radu Magdin. "So everything is on the table."