Shifting alliances in the Sahel: Turkey, Morocco, and Iran vie for influence amidst French withdrawal

As France scales back its military presence in the Sahel region, a new geopolitical landscape is emerging, with Turkey, Morocco, and Iran stepping up their efforts to establish themselves as key players amidst the shifting dynamics.

The departure of French forces has created a vacuum that these nations are eager to fill, signaling a significant shift in the region's strategic alliances.

Turkey has been particularly assertive, leveraging its defense industry as a primary tool for expanding its influence in African countries. Early March saw Turkish officials presenting an array of military hardware, including fighter jets and combat helicopters, to the military regimes in the Sahel, struggling against jihadist groups. 

This move comes as Turkish-made combat drones have become pivotal in the asymmetrical conflicts in Mali and Burkina Faso. Despite allegations of causing civilian casualties, these drones are prized for their effectiveness, with Mali receiving a new batch of Baykar drones in early 2024.

Morocco's Economic Development Initiatives

Concurrently, Morocco has embarked on a different path, focusing on economic development projects. In September, Morocco offered to share its extensive infrastructure with Mali, Burkina, Niger, and Chad to support their landlocked economies. This approach emphasizes Morocco's longstanding relations with these countries, rooted in economic cooperation rather than military assistance.

Iran's Growing Presence and Potential Ambitions

Iran has also been making inroads, signing multiple cooperation agreements with Burkina Faso in energy, urban planning, higher education, and construction. Furthermore, Tehran's announcement of establishing two universities in Mali, alongside various cooperation agreements, marks a significant step in its African policy. 

Iran's strategy, characterized by anti-imperialist rhetoric, resonates with countries seeking alternatives to former colonial powers. However, the effectiveness of these agreements remains to be seen, given Iran's limited financing capabilities compared to Turkey or Saudi Arabia.

The Quest for Uranium: A Long-Term Objective?

Amid these developments, Iran's interest in the Sahel could extend to the region's uranium reserves, especially in Niger, previously exploited by the French company Orano. With Iran increasing its enriched uranium production, access to Niger's resources could represent a strategic objective, underscoring the complex interplay of economic and security interests reshaping the Sahel's geopolitical landscape.

As these nations vie for influence in the Sahel, the region stands at a crossroads, with its future alliances and strategic partnerships increasingly uncertain. The outcome of these competing interests will significantly impact the Sahel's path towards stability and development in the coming years.