The MBS paradox: The one man who needs Israel, and cannot afford to be seen with it

Everyone in this story sees the contradiction. No one in power wants to say it out loud.

Mohammed bin Salman, crown prince of Saudi Arabia, cannot deliver his future without Israel and the United States. Vision 2030, the gigantic transformation that is supposed to carry Saudi Arabia beyond oil, depends on American security guarantees, Western technology, global capital and a relatively calm regional environment. It is not poetry. It is math.

He knows that a strategic understanding with Israel, anchored in Washington, is the quickest way to secure advanced weapons, nuclear cooperation, artificial intelligence partnerships and long term investment. That is why he keeps repeating that he wants to join a normalization framework, but only with a "clear path" to a Palestinian state.

This is the surface.

Inside, the truth is harsher. In a private conversation reported by several outlets, MBS reportedly told Antony Blinken that he does not personally care about the Palestinian issue, but his people do, so he must make it meaningful.

Here is the paradox. The man who may be the central broker of the next Middle East says he does not care about the core emotional file of the Arab world, while his own society is becoming even more radical on exactly that subject.

A street that will not accept Israel

The numbers are not subtle. Before the Gaza war, Saudi public opinion was already cold on normalization. After Gaza, it turned to ice.

Polling shows strong rejection of recognition of Israel among Saudis, with opposition rising sharply after the war. Broader Arab surveys show almost unanimous rejection of recognition of Israel across the region, with a clear hardening of attitudes inside Saudi Arabia in particular.

Saudi society also judged its own government harshly. In regional surveys, a strong majority of respondents viewed Riyadh's position on the Gaza war as bad or very bad, and only a minority saw it positively.

So MBS looks out at a region that is inflamed, a domestic public that is suspicious of any move that looks like peace with Israel and Islamist currents that are happy to call him a traitor the moment he crosses a certain line.

He is not naive. He understands exactly how rulers fall in the Middle East.

On the other side, Israel is not in a position to give him the political shield he needs.

Recent polling shows that a clear majority of Israelis oppose a Palestinian state in the West Bank, even when it is linked to normalization with Saudi Arabia. A similar majority supports extending Israeli sovereignty over the territory.

In other words, even if MBS and Washington craft some elegant formula, the Israeli public is deeply hostile to real statehood, and the current political class is built on exactly that resistance.

This creates the second layer of the paradox. MBS insists on a "clear path" to a Palestinian state as the condition for open peace, because he needs something to show his street. Israel is not ready to give it, politically or emotionally. 

Yet he cannot simply drop the condition, because he once again faces his own people and the wider Arab world.

So he is stuck between two worlds that cannot meet at the level he needs, while everyone keeps talking as if the deal is just around the corner.

Vision 2030 sitting on a fault line

Vision 2030 is marketed as the great escape from oil. In reality, it is a massive bet that the kingdom can import enough capital, technology and political stability to turn industrial fantasies into functioning realities. 

The size of these investments will increase fiscal and external pressures, and the success of the program is tightly linked to regional security and investor confidence.

Iran, militias, Yemen, Gaza, Hezbollah, the risk of a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, all of this can blow up the investment climate overnight. MBS knows it.

That is why he wants the United States locked in, Israel contained inside a United States led framework and Saudi Arabia recognized as the central player around which the region reorganizes. In his mind, normalization with Israel, plus a security package and big United States cooperation on energy transition and artificial intelligence, is a single integrated equation.

From the outside, this looks like bold leadership. From the inside, it looks like a crown prince trying to build a twenty first century monarchy on top of a very old and angry political volcano.

Everyone sees it, everyone pretends not to

Washington, Jerusalem, Riyadh, Brussels, Paris, all understand this contradiction.

They know that Saudi public opinion rejects normalization, that Arab opinion is boiling after Gaza, that MBS himself is on record saying he does not personally care about Palestine but must act for his people, that Israel does not want a real Palestinian state, and that any fake formula will explode later.

Yet the diplomatic machine continues to speak in clichés about "historic opportunities" and "paths to peace."

Why? Because there is too much on the table. Protection for shipping routes and energy markets. Hundreds of billions in minerals and green projects. Artificial intelligence partnerships. Defense contracts. Access to Saudi capital for Western economies in trouble.

So a quiet decision has been made at the top levels: better to speak as if this paradox can be managed, or slowly massaged away, than to admit that the model itself is unstable.

How to look at MBS without illusions

If we remove the illusions, MBS is not a romantic reformer and not a cartoon villain. He is a ruthless, highly ambitious autocrat who has concentrated power, crushed rivals and now wants to lock his country into a new grand bargain with the United States and, indirectly, with Israel.

He is capable of changing the map. His decisions on oil, security, technology and recognition have real weight.

But he will not sacrifice his crown for anyone, and certainly not for Israel.

He will move toward Israel only if three conditions are met at the same time:

1. The deal strengthens his regime, his economy and his security pact with Washington.

2. He can present it as a victory for the Palestinian cause, at least symbolically, with some irreversible commitments on statehood that he can point to when the criticism comes.

3. The risks of internal revolt, Islamist backlash and regional isolation stay below the level that threatens his survival.

If these conditions are not met, he will stall, pivot, change language, blame Israeli intransigence, praise Palestinian rights and continue building his economy while keeping quiet, partial cooperation with Israel under the table.

The question for Israel and the West

For Israel, the temptation is to see MBS as the magic gateway to the Arab and Muslim world. For Washington and Europe, the temptation is to treat him as the indispensable partner for stability, energy, minerals and artificial intelligence.

The reality is harder. He is a man sitting exactly at the point where two forces meet. He needs Israel and the West to deliver his future. 

His own people can destroy him for exactly that relationship.

That is the real paradox. Everyone sees it. The risk is that, once again in Middle Eastern history, leaders and diplomats decide to ignore what is in front of their eyes, and then act surprised when the volcano under their feet finally erupts.