Trump 2024: A catalyst for peace in the Middle East?

The potential re-election of Donald Trump raises an essential question for international diplomacy: could his return to the White House contribute to peace in the Middle East? 

While his previous administration was marked by unconventional diplomacy and assertive actions in the region, the prospect of a second Trump term invites both skepticism and cautious optimism. Trump’s unique approach to foreign policy has undoubtedly left an impact, yet whether this approach would foster peace is complex and multifaceted.

Trump’s first term saw a series of significant, if polarizing, actions in the Middle East. Most notably, the Abraham Accords established diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. 

This move was hailed as a breakthrough, creating new avenues for cooperation in trade, security, and culture. Trump’s supporters argue that his firm stance on Iran and alignment with Israel were stabilizing forces, reshaping alliances in the region. By bringing former adversaries to the negotiating table, Trump demonstrated his ability to leverage economic and strategic incentives for peace.

However, the question remains: would a similar approach in a second term be sufficient to address the root causes of regional conflicts?

Trump’s foreign policy is often described as transactional, focusing on deals and immediate outcomes. While this approach yielded results, it largely bypassed the complex dynamics that fuel Middle Eastern conflicts. For example, his administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal escalated tensions, pushing Tehran to expand its nuclear capabilities and deepening its animosity toward the United States. 

While Trump’s policies strengthened ties with Israel and certain Gulf states, they also alienated key players, potentially hindering any comprehensive peace efforts in a second term.

A sustainable path to peace would require addressing underlying issues such as economic disparities, political disenfranchisement, and sectarian divisions. These cannot be resolved solely through high-profile agreements or sanctions; rather, they demand a nuanced and inclusive approach that respects the perspectives of all stakeholders.

Trump’s administration prioritized stability over promoting democratic reform, especially in its alliances with authoritarian regimes in the region. 

While this pragmatism facilitated partnerships, critics argue it may have overlooked the long-term need for inclusive governance to ensure lasting peace. Many Middle Eastern conflicts are rooted in calls for political representation and rights, issues that are unlikely to disappear under authoritarian rule. A second Trump administration may continue to favor stability over reform, which, while providing short-term gains, could leave underlying grievances unaddressed.

Navigating a Changing Geopolitical Landscape

The Middle East today faces new challenges, with China and Russia becoming increasingly influential in the region. Trump’s potential return could signal a shift back to a more assertive U.S. presence, counterbalancing these influences. 

Yet, a strategy that focuses solely on containing rival powers risks overlooking the aspirations of Middle Eastern nations themselves. Successful diplomacy in the region will require acknowledging the growing desire among regional leaders for strategic autonomy—an approach that supports their development and regional identity.

In sum, while Trump’s re-election could bring a return to his brand of deal-making diplomacy, questions persist about the efficacy of such an approach in fostering a long-term peace in the Middle East. While the Abraham Accords were a significant achievement, a peaceful Middle East will require much more than diplomatic recognition between certain states. 

The path to true stability and peace will involve addressing socio-economic disparities, sectarianism, and the aspirations of the people themselves.

If Trump is re-elected, his approach will need to evolve beyond transactional diplomacy to include a broader vision for a peaceful and prosperous Middle East. 

Peace in the region requires not just the absence of conflict but the presence of justice, representation, and opportunity for all. Whether Donald Trump can or would pursue such a vision remains uncertain, yet it is a challenge that the Middle East—and the world—cannot afford to overlook.