Trump charts a post-conflict future for the Middle East

President Donald Trump describes a Middle East in transition and argues that the region, long seen as a focal point of global instability, now presents expanding opportunities for partnership, investment, and strategic cooperation. 

His assessment appears in the newly released National Security Strategy of the United States of America, in which he claims that American engagement in the region is shifting from crisis management to long-term collaboration.

According to the document, Iran, the actor Trump labels the region’s “chief destabilizing force”, has been significantly weakened by Israeli operations since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, as well as by Operation Midnight Hammer, the June 2025 U.S. strike targeting Tehran’s nuclear program. 

Trump credits his administration with progress on Israeli-Palestinian issues, citing the ceasefire and hostage-release deal negotiated earlier this year.

The strategy frames Syria as a potential flashpoint but one that could stabilize with joint American, Arab, Israeli, and Turkish backing. Trump argues that the country could “reassume its rightful place” in the regional order if current diplomatic efforts succeed.

A Shift Away From Oil-Driven Engagement

Trump writes that as the United States rolls back restrictions on domestic energy production, Washington’s traditional dependency-driven focus on the Middle East will diminish. 

In this view, the region is poised to evolve into a hub for global investment not only in oil and gas, but in sectors such as nuclear energy, artificial intelligence, and defense technologies. 

He also sees Middle Eastern partners as key players in U.S. efforts to secure supply chains and foster economic ties in emerging markets, particularly in Africa.

Rejecting Pressure for Political Reform

The document sharply criticizes previous U.S. approaches that sought to pressure Gulf monarchies into political reforms. Trump argues that Washington should “accept the region as it is,” encouraging change only when it emerges internally rather than through external demands. 

The goal, he says, is to build durable partnerships rooted in shared interests rather than ideological expectations.

U.S. Priorities Remain Clear: Energy Security, Counterterrorism, and Israel

Despite announcing a reduced strategic burden, Trump lists several core American interests that remain non-negotiable: ensuring that Gulf energy supplies do not fall into hostile hands, keeping the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea open to navigation, preventing terrorist threats from originating in the region, and maintaining Israel’s security. He argues these objectives can be achieved without prolonged “nation-building” missions.

Expanding the Abraham Accords to additional Arab and Muslim-majority states is described as a central aim of U.S. diplomacy.

A Region No Longer Dominating U.S. Foreign Policy

Trump asserts that the Middle East “is no longer the constant irritant” it once was, highlighting his diplomatic summit at Sharm el-Sheikh, where he claims to have united Arab leaders behind a new peace and normalization agenda. 

This, he says, enables the United States to finally “prioritize American interests” after decades of reactive foreign policy.

The strategy portrays a region moving from volatility to partnership, and a United States repositioning itself not as a permanent crisis manager, but as a selective, interest-driven actor forging new economic and security frameworks.