Trump's wildest idea yet: Iran joining the Abraham Accords

In a post published Monday on Truth Social, President Donald Trump issued what amounts to a sweeping diplomatic ultimatum to the Arab and Muslim world: normalise with Israel through the Abraham Accords, or forfeit any role in the Iran agreement he is working to finalise.

Writing after a marathon round of meetings in Saudi Arabia with leaders from across the region — Mohammed bin Salman, Mohammed bin Zayed, the Qatari Emir and Prime Minister, Erdoğan, Sisi, King Abdullah of Jordan, King Hamad of Bahrain and Pakistan's Field Marshal Munir, Trump declared that signing the Accords should now be "mandatory" for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan.

The logic is characteristically transactional. Want to be part of the most historic deal ever negotiated? Pay your entry fee in the form of normalisation with Israel. Refuse? "They show bad intention" and "should not be part of this Deal."

Trump's most audacious proposal - buried mid-post but impossible to miss - is the suggestion that Iran itself could eventually join the Abraham Accords.

"In speaking to numerous of the Great Leaders mentioned above, they would be honored, as soon as our Document is signed, to have the Islamic Republic of Iran as part of the Abraham Accords. Wow, now that would be something special!"

Iran, the state that has spent decades arming proxies dedicated to Israel's destruction, that fired missiles at Gulf states allied with Washington, and whose nuclear ambitions have repeatedly brought the region to the brink, as a signatory to a normalisation framework with Israel. The audacity of the proposition is difficult to overstate. So is its potential significance if it were ever to materialise.

The Abraham Accords as leverage

Trump made no attempt to hide his pride in the Accords he brokered during his first term. He credited them with delivering a "Financial, Economic, and Social BOOM" for existing members, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and Kazakhstan,  and pointed to the fact that "not one current member has even suggested leaving, or taking so much as a pause" as evidence of their success.

His pitch to the holdouts is simple: this works. Join it. The alternative, being excluded from what he promises will be "the most important Deal that any of these Countries will ever sign », is presented as both an economic loss and a moral failure.

Trump singled out Saudi Arabia and Qatar for immediate action, framing their signatures as the catalyst that would bring everyone else along. 

Both present formidable obstacles. Saudi Arabia has long conditioned any normalisation on meaningful progress toward a Palestinian state. Qatar hosts Hamas's political leadership and has positioned itself as a mediator — a role incompatible, in many eyes, with signing an accord widely seen in the Arab world as a betrayal of Palestinian aspirations.

Turkey and Pakistan face equally explosive domestic politics. Normalising with Israel, against the backdrop of Gaza, would test both governments to their limits.

Trump's post lands at a genuinely pivotal moment. Negotiations with Iran are, by his own account, "proceeding nicely », though he made clear that a bad deal is not on the table. "It will only be a Great Deal for all, or no Deal at all, Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before."

If an Iran deal does materialise, the Abraham Accords cease to be a diplomatic curiosity and become the framework for a transformed Middle East. The pressure on holdout states to sign, already real, becomes overwhelming.

Trump is betting that the gravitational pull of a US-Iran agreement, combined with the promise of economic gains and the threat of exclusion, will be enough to bring Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the others to the table.

It is, by any measure, the most ambitious diplomatic gambit the region has seen in decades. Whether it is genius or fantasy - or both - the next few weeks will tell.