Turkey’s 2025 current account deficit forecast at $24 billion

Turkey’s current account deficit is expected to widen to $5.2 billion in December, while reaching $24 billion for the whole of 2025, according to a Reuters poll published on Tuesday.

Forecasts from 11 economists place the December deficit between $4.8 billion and $6 billion, reflecting weaker seasonal inflows. The median estimate for the 2025 full-year deficit remained unchanged from the previous poll at $24 billion, with projections ranging from $23.38 billion to $24.50 billion.

Official data showed that Turkey’s current account posted a $4 billion deficit in November, exceeding market expectations, while the full-year deficit for 2024 stood at $9.97 billion.

Analysts attribute the expected December deterioration largely to a seasonal decline in tourism revenues, a key source of foreign currency for the country. In a recent research note, Goldman Sachs said the tourism slowdown typically weighs on the balance toward the end of the year.

For 2025, the government has revised down its forecast for the current account deficit-to-GDP ratio to 1.4%, signaling confidence in ongoing structural adjustments. 

Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek has repeatedly stressed that the government will continue to back high value-added production, pursue active industrial policies, and prioritize investments that expand domestic and renewable energy capacity to support long-term improvements in the external balance.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is scheduled to release the official December current account data at 0700 GMT on February 13, a release closely watched by investors and policymakers alike.