Vance eyes the throne

US Vice President JD Vance distanced himself from President Donald Trump's war on Iran on Wednesday, questioning whether it was worth the cost and blaming it for Republicans' election losses that handed Democrats control of both chambers of Congress.

Vance's extraordinary remarks in a post on X could further complicate Trump's deliberations as he weighs whether to restart major combat operations against Iran, a step US officials have told Reuters is still under consideration.

They also raise questions about the political fortunes of senior Pentagon officials, most notably Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Trump has described Hegseth as an early advocate for the war.

Hegseth has also faced fierce criticism from members of Congress.

"The reason we lost is the war," Vance said on X. "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so."

Vance, who is seen as a leading 2028 presidential contender, also said an earlier recommendation to end the war was "sound advice." 

Asked about Vance’s remarks, Trump told reporters he thought they were good, saying: “I know how he feels about it.” But Trump then defended the war effort, saying: “We stopped them from having a nuclear weapon.”

Some officials and staff inside the White House viewed Vance's post as a foreign policy break from the president and a public recognition that the war had domestic economic consequences, a White House adviser told Reuters. 

Democrats secured control of both the Senate and House of Representatives on Tuesday, scoring sweeping victories in Republican strongholds for the first time in generations.

Voters in conservative bastions who had propelled the president to his second term in office just two years ago swung dramatically toward Democrats, fueled by deep frustration over the war with Iran, anxiety over the high cost of living and anger at ‌Trump's stewardship of the country.

Vance sought to play down any difference of opinion with Trump, saying the president had also acknowledged that the Iran war cost Republicans the midterm elections on Tuesday. But Trump was far more measured, saying the Iran war was only one of multiple reasons for the electoral rout.

"I did the right thing," Trump told the Wall Street Journal. "I would have done it again."

Marco Rubio, a possible 2028 rival to Vance, has remained silent since the midterm elections. 

The White House did not provide comment for this story but referred Reuters to Trump’s comments from earlier Wednesday agreeing with Vance's assessment that the Iran war was a major factor in Republican losses on Tuesday.

Vance's extraordinary post drew a mocking riposte from Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Vance's opposite number at face-to-face peace talks in April. Qalibaf suggested that if Vance believed the war was a bad idea, he should convince Trump to end it, rather than double down.

"Losing gambler energy, can't walk away from the table. Boss is prepping the next war phase while America teeters on an Israel-First cliff. Skip the TED talk. Why not say this to your boss?" Qalibaf wrote in English in a reply to Vance's post on X.

OPTIONS FOR RENEWED ATTACKS

Trump launched the Iran war ‌jointly with Israel in February, predicting a brief conflict that could bring the end of the Iranian government, which he called the "bully of the Middle East."

While the attacks dealt severe blows to Iran's military and its underground weapons storage facilities, the conflict turned into an effective stalemate after an April ceasefire failed to deliver a peace deal.

Since then, Iran has recovered some of its buried arsenal and threatened ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to concerns over global oil supplies. 

With no clear path out of the conflict, Trump was briefed last week by Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of US Central Command, on options for restarting combat operations, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

But US intelligence assessments in recent months have indicated that renewed strikes on Iran would not fundamentally change Tehran's negotiating position or lead to regime change, according to a US intelligence official and two other US officials briefed on the intelligence.

Still, sources familiar with the deliberations warn Trump could still decide to act, noting he was aware of the political risks before Tuesday's elections and "just didn't care."

One source said Trump did not have anything to lose politically now that the midterms were over and that he was more likely to double down on Iran and go ahead with an attack.

A second source agreed the most likely course was renewed hostilities, saying: "He is planning to bomb Iran. Don’t listen to what he’s saying. He held off because of the midterms. We asked him to hold off until the midterms."

All of the sources spoke on condition of anonymity.

2028 CAMPAIGN

Vance’s comments could be seen as the start of his 2028 campaign, a person familiar with the matter said.

Some officials in the White House were made aware prior to Vance's post.

But a White House official, in a response to questions from Reuters, said most, if not all, senior White House staff were caught off guard by it.

Mediators have intensified efforts to end the war amid fears it could reignite after the election.

Vance has in recent weeks leaned more heavily into negotiations with Tehran. But there has been little indication from Iran that it is willing to accept American demands, including that it reduce its nuclear enrichment levels to zero.