France eyes role in Lebanon, prospects look slim

Lebanon's prime minister and French President Emmanuel Macron will discuss on Tuesday how to strengthen the country's hand in possible direct negotiations with Israel in the United States later this week, as Beirut turns to a trusted European ally.

The U.S. will host ambassador-level talks with Israel and Lebanon on Thursday, although it remains unclear whether the objective is to extend a fragile 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah or pave the way for deeper negotiations.

Israeli troops occupy territory deep in the south, aiming to create a buffer zone to shield northern Israel from Hezbollah attack, while the group says it maintains the "right to resist" Israeli occupation.

"France’s role is not to insert itself between the parties in discussions that are, by nature, bilateral and direct," a French presidency official said ahead of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's meeting with Macron.

"France is one of the countries capable of playing a very concrete role in strengthening the Lebanese government’s hand and supporting its action in practical terms."

France, which has deep historical ties with Lebanon, has sought alongside Washington to mediate in the conflict, brokering a ceasefire in 2024 and helping establish a mechanism to monitor it.

But relations with Israel have soured over France’s stance on Gaza and the West Bank, its accusations that Israel’s actions in Lebanon are disproportionate, and its contacts with Hezbollah’s political wing.

Israel’s ambassador to Washington said last week that France should be excluded from any talks, describing Paris as having "no positive influence."

The U.S., while maintaining contact with France on the issue, has also sought to marginalise its role.

European and Lebanese diplomats say they fear that if direct negotiations begin, Lebanon’s government could be too weak to resist unrealistic demands, potentially fuelling domestic tensions given Hezbollah’s refusal to negotiate with Israel.

"We are trying our best to get them [France] back in the discussions, but the U.S. and Israel are adamant not to include them," said a Lebanese diplomat.

Lebanon's inability to rein in Hezbollah following the 2024 ceasefire has raised questions about Beirut's credibility at negotiations. France has pushed initiatives only to be rebuffed by the U.S. and Israel.

Paris argues that unlike Washington it has a significant presence on the ground in Lebanon with some 700 UN peacekeepers, and that any peace deal would still need a significant international presence to implement it.

A French soldier was killed in southern Lebanon this week in attack the French government said was carried out by Hezbollah.