From hostility to strategy: Erdogan reconsiders ties with Israel

Turkish Airlines is reportedly exploring the possibility of resuming flights to Israel’s Ben-Gurion Airport in the coming weeks, signaling what could be a remarkable shift after nearly two years of frozen aviation ties between the two countries.

The airline has yet to confirm any decision, and as of Friday, no Tel Aviv flights appeared on its public schedules. But the mere suggestion of a return—reported by Israeli media—has stirred speculation about what’s really driving the move.

The answer may lie less with the airline and more with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, a leader known not just for his rhetoric, but also for his sharp political pragmatism.

For the past two years, Ankara has taken a hard public line against Israel, particularly since the war in Gaza escalated in late 2023. Erdoğan’s government openly supported Hamas, imposed new restrictions on trade with Israel, and even shut its airspace to certain Israeli aircraft this summer.

And yet, Erdoğan is no stranger to pivoting when opportunity knocks.

“Hostile in words, flexible in action — that’s been Erdoğan’s playbook for years when it comes to Israel,” noted one regional analyst. “He knows when to turn down the volume if it suits his interests.”

Indeed, Turkish-Israeli relations have gone through multiple cycles of tension and détente over the past two decades. 

Each time, Erdoğan has shown a capacity to reset, especially when strategic or economic gains are within reach.

Some reports link the possible resumption of Turkish Airlines’ Tel Aviv-Istanbul flights to President Donald Trump’s recent push for a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza, a process in which Turkey is said to be playing a behind-the-scenes role.

Resuming flights to Israel would not only restore a profitable route—one that, pre-war, carried thousands of Israeli travelers through Istanbul to global destinations—it would also signal that Ankara is prepared to shift gears when it sees a diplomatic opening.

Observers caution against reading too much into the gesture. Erdoğan’s foreign policy often operates on multiple tracks—loud condemnation for domestic or regional audiences, paired with quiet re-engagement when the moment is right.