From resistance to rejection: Hezbollah’s delusions of grandeur

Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Naïm Kassem, delivered on Saturday a speech commemorating the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general killed in a U.S. drone strike on January 3, 2020, in Baghdad. 

Kassem addressed recent political developments in Lebanon and the region, while also reflecting on the ongoing ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, which began on November 27 and is set to last 60 days after over 13 months of clashes following the Gaza war.

In his speech, Kassem praised Hezbollah’s "determination" in confronting Israeli forces, stating that the party had prevented the Israeli military from advancing beyond "a few hundred meters on the front lines," contrasting this with the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, when Israeli forces reached Beirut within days.

Kassem credited the "resilience and sacrifices" of Hezbollah for compelling Israel to agree to the current ceasefire. He asserted that Lebanon’s very existence now depends on Hezbollah's "Resistance" and emphasized that the group retains full control over its military strategy. 

“It is Hezbollah that decides when and how to fight, and the weapons to be used,” he declared, adding that the group's patience is tied to choosing the "right moment to confront the enemy."

His remarks also carried a warning: “Our patience may run out before 60 days or after. When we decide to act, you will see it immediately.”

Despite Kassem’s confident rhetoric, Hezbollah faces a steep decline in its influence and capabilities, both militarily and politically. The group has suffered significant losses in its military strength, while its political standing in Lebanon continues to erode as public frustration grows.

Many Lebanese increasingly reject Hezbollah’s actions, viewing the group as a source of instability and destruction rather than a protector of the nation. The militia's operations have been widely blamed for exacerbating Lebanon’s ongoing economic and social crises, leaving it isolated from large sections of the population.

Hezbollah’s external support network has also weakened considerably. The group can no longer rely on Bashar al-Assad’s regime for critical supply routes.

Hezbollah's main backer, Iran, is grappling with its own economic and political struggles, limiting its ability to provide the financial and logistical support that once fueled Hezbollah’s operations.

The year 2024 has been described as a “great catastrophe” for Hezbollah. Its weakened military capacity, dwindling domestic support, and strained alliances suggest a prolonged recovery period—if recovery is even possible.

The organization, once a dominant force in the region, is now grappling with existential challenges that threaten its long-term survival.