Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, David Schenker, said it is “unlikely” that the Lebanese army could disarm Hezbollah without sparking a civil war, in an interview with This is Beirut.
The the Lebanese army has around 75,000 troops © Mena Today
Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, David Schenker, said it is “unlikely” that the Lebanese army could disarm Hezbollah without sparking a civil war, in an interview with This is Beirut.
Schenker, who served under the Trump administration from 2019 to 2021, argued that ordering the army to fire on its own citizens would trigger a state crisis.
He also downplayed Hezbollah’s rhetoric, noting that its deputy leader, Naïm Kassem, compared the group’s fight to the Battle of Karbala, which “did not end well for the Shia.”
The U.S. official pointed out that the Lebanese army has around 75,000 troops, compared to Hezbollah’s estimated 15,000 fighters, though the group’s strength has been severely weakened after heavy losses in the recent war with Israel.
Kassem has repeatedly warned of civil war if the government proceeds with its plan to disarm all militias.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, who reaffirmed the state’s monopoly on arms in his January 2025 inauguration speech, admitted he also fears such a scenario, even as the army presented its disarmament plan to the government last September.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration approved $230 million for Lebanon's security forces this week as they push to disarm the once powerful armed group Hezbollah, sources in Washington and Beirut said.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of President Donald Trump and a long-standing critic of Hezbollah, said the Middle East cannot achieve “normalization” while the Iran-backed group continues to operate.
Senior Hezbollah official Mohammad Raad on Monday delivered a sharp rebuke of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government, accusing it of bowing to foreign pressure after its recent decision to enforce a monopoly of arms under the state.
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