Hezbollah threatens civil war as disarmament debate intensifies

Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, David Schenker, said it is “unlikely” that the Lebanese army could disarm Hezbollah without sparking a civil war, in an interview with This is Beirut.

Schenker, who served under the Trump administration from 2019 to 2021, argued that ordering the army to fire on its own citizens would trigger a state crisis. 

He also downplayed Hezbollah’s rhetoric, noting that its deputy leader, Naïm Kassem, compared the group’s fight to the Battle of Karbala, which “did not end well for the Shia.”

The U.S. official pointed out that the Lebanese army has around 75,000 troops, compared to Hezbollah’s estimated 15,000 fighters, though the group’s strength has been severely weakened after heavy losses in the recent war with Israel.

Kassem has repeatedly warned of civil war if the government proceeds with its plan to disarm all militias. 

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, who reaffirmed the state’s monopoly on arms in his January 2025 inauguration speech, admitted he also fears such a scenario, even as the army presented its disarmament plan to the government last September.