International support for Lebanon falls short without addressing core issues

French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting a high-profile international conference in Paris this Thursday aimed at gathering financial support for Lebanon. 

While Macron has shown a preference for organizing such prestigious summits, the actual results of these events often fall short of the expectations. The stated objective of the conference is to raise funds to aid the civilian population in Lebanon, which is grappling with ongoing political, economic, and social crises.

However, it is unlikely that the conference will address the core issues that could lead to long-term solutions for Lebanon’s instability.

One of the main drivers of Lebanon's instability is the influence of Iran through its proxy, Hezbollah, a powerful armed group that has destabilized the country for more than 30 years. 

The international community, particularly the participants at this conference, must be willing to confront this reality and demand the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Hezbollah’s military and political influence have undermined Lebanon's sovereignty and stoked tensions, both within the country and across the region. 

Yet, the likelihood that Macron and his counterparts will address this head-on seems slim. Without directly confronting Iran’s role and Hezbollah’s activities, any progress made during the conference will likely be superficial.

Another critical issue that should be discussed, but likely won't, is the implementation of UN Resolution 1701. This resolution, passed in 2006 after the war between Hezbollah and Israel, called for the withdrawal of armed groups (specifically Hezbollah) from a 30-kilometer zone near the Israeli border. However, 17 years later, Hezbollah continues to operate in southern Lebanon, using the area as a massive arms depot.

The presence of UN peacekeeping forces (UNIFIL) in the region has done little to curb Hezbollah's activities. Despite the United Nations being fully aware of the situation, no effective measures have been taken to enforce the resolution. 

The Paris conference presents an opportunity to set new standards and rules of engagement to ensure the demilitarization of the border area. But whether Macron or other international leaders will have the courage to push for such action is doubtful.

Missed Opportunities for Real Change

While the conference's stated goal of supporting Lebanon's civilian population is important, without addressing these fundamental issues, any financial aid or support may only serve as a temporary fix. Lebanon’s instability is deeply tied to regional geopolitics, and its long-term recovery depends on dealing with the root causes of its problems, particularly the presence of Hezbollah and the influence of Iran.

Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that Macron or his international counterparts will take the bold steps necessary to enforce UN Resolution 1701, disarm Hezbollah, or significantly alter the political landscape in Lebanon. 

Without addressing these core issues, the conference may end up being another example of grand diplomatic gestures with modest outcomes.