Joseph Aoun’s Saudi visit signals a new era in Lebanon-Gulf relations

Lebanon’s newly elected President, Joseph Aoun, has announced that his first official foreign visit will be to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, marking a significant step toward restoring ties between Beirut and Riyadh after years of political and diplomatic tensions.

This strategic move is widely interpreted as a gesture of goodwill and an effort to rebuild relations with one of Lebanon’s most influential regional partners. It also highlights the shifting dynamics within Lebanon’s internal politics, particularly regarding the diminishing influence of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite group that has long been a central player in Lebanon’s political sphere.

Saudi Arabia has reportedly welcomed President Aoun's election, viewing it as an opportunity for Lebanon to recalibrate its political trajectory. 

For years, Riyadh had distanced itself from Beirut, citing concerns over Hezbollah's dominance and Iran's expanding influence in Lebanon. The Kingdom had also scaled back its financial support, impacting Lebanon's fragile economy.

Analysts suggest that Saudi Arabia sees Joseph Aoun’s presidency as a potential turning point that could curb Hezbollah's political leverage and realign Lebanon more closely with Gulf Arab interests. Saudi officials have expressed cautious optimism, signaling a readiness to engage with Lebanon under a leadership they perceive as more neutral and reform-oriented.

President Aoun's decision to visit Saudi Arabia first underscores the strategic importance of Riyadh in Lebanon’s political and economic recovery. 

Historically, Saudi Arabia has been a major economic supporter of Lebanon, providing aid, investments, and financial assistance, especially to Sunni political factions. However, this support diminished as Hezbollah’s influence grew, and Lebanese politics became more entangled in regional rivalries.

The regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been a defining factor in Lebanon’s internal divisions. Hezbollah's military and political power, backed by Iran, has often placed Lebanon at odds with Saudi interests. Riyadh's endorsement of Lebanon's new leadership could signal a shift in the balance of power, potentially reducing Iran’s sway over Lebanese affairs.

Moreover, this diplomatic thaw aligns with Saudi Arabia’s broader regional strategy of de-escalation. Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Kingdom has pursued a more pragmatic foreign policy, seeking to ease regional tensions, as seen in its recent rapprochement with Iran through Chinese mediation.

Economic Cooperation and Lebanon’s Crisis

Lebanon is currently facing one of the worst economic crises in its history. The Lebanese pound has plummeted in value, unemployment is soaring, and public services have nearly collapsed. 

Decisive international support is crucial for Lebanon's recovery, and rebuilding ties with Saudi Arabia could unlock vital economic aid and investment.

Economic cooperation is expected to be a central topic during President Aoun's visit. Saudi Arabia could offer financial assistance or encourage Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) partners to reinvest in Lebanon’s economy, provided Beirut undertakes meaningful reforms. 

The visit may also revive stalled discussions about Gulf investments in Lebanon's key sectors, including infrastructure, energy, and banking.

Despite this positive diplomatic gesture, rebuilding trust between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia will not be without challenges. Riyadh is likely to demand concrete actions to limit Hezbollah’s influence and promote political reforms before committing substantial financial support. 

President Aoun will need to navigate Lebanon’s complex sectarian politics to deliver on these expectations while maintaining national unity.

Additionally, internal divisions within Lebanon's political elite could complicate efforts to shift policies. Hezbollah and its allies may resist moves perceived as aligning Lebanon too closely with Saudi interests, potentially leading to political friction.