Pressure mounts on Netanyahu as opposition moves to dissolve parliament

A member of Israel's right-wing coalition threatened to quit the cabinet on Wednesday and support an opposition motion to dissolve parliament tabled for next week, piling pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Latest opinion polls suggest that Netanyahu's coalition would lose power if an election was held today, with many voters unhappy over the continued war in Gaza prompted by the attack by Hamas militants on southern Israel in October 2023.

United Torah Judaism, one of two ultra-Orthodox parties in the coalition, said it would withdraw from the government unless it secured last-minute concessions formalising an exemption for ultra-Orthodox men from military service.

The opposition party Yesh Atid, led by former prime minister Yair Lapid, put forward a parliamentary vote for next week to topple the government, even as the Israeli army continues battling Hamas in the Gaza Strip. It would require the support of 61 out of the 120 members of the parliament to succeed.

"This Knesset (parliament) is finished. It has nowhere to go," Lapid said.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, has remained silent on the looming crisis. 

A spokesperson for United Torah Judaism leader Yitzhak Goldknopf told Reuters the party would vote in favour of dissolving parliament unless exemption legislation was passed.

With a week until the vote, Netanyahu and his allies still have time to negotiate over an issue that has dogged the coalition for months.

A source close to the government said, on condition of anonymity, that negotiations within the coalition were continuing.

Netanyahu's coalition of secular right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties holds an 8-seat majority in parliament. United Torah Judaism has 7 seats while its ally, Shas, the other ultra-Orthodox party, has 11.

BETTING ON A BLUFF

The coalition is sharply divided over whether young ultra-Orthodox men who are studying in religious seminaries should be exempt from mandatory military service.

Failing to pass an exemption risks a walkout by ultra-Orthodox lawmakers, while approving it could trigger a protest exit by secular parties.

Coalition member Ohad Tal of Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party criticized Goldknopf for threatening to trigger elections and called on the ultra-Orthodox lawmaker to resign.

He urged others to negotiate a new arrangement but that a blanket exemption from military service could no longer stand.

Former Knesset member Ofer Shelah said Netanyahu was likely betting the ultra-Orthodox lawmakers were bluffing, given the polls suggested they faced defeat in any early election.

In March, ultra-Orthodox lawmakers threatened to bring down the government over the same issue, but time passed without any action. Resentment over the informal exemption given to religious seminary students is growing and lawmakers from the ruling coalition and opposition ranks say it is no longer tenable.

Netanyahu won election in 2022 and does not have to return to the polls until 2026. Historically, few Israeli governments serve a full term. 

He has faced widespread criticism for failing to prevent the surprise October 2023 Hamas attack that killed roughly 1,200 people, and is facing growing calls from protesters and families of hostages still held in Gaza to end the war to secure their release. 

But some in his coalition say the war must continue until Hamas is eradicated.

Political analysts say that the ultra-Orthodox lawmakers could simply quit the government to protest their failure to secure concessions, without toppling the ruling coalition.

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Here are some key facts about the Knesset, the procedure for a dissolution vote, which would lead to an election, and possible scenarios.

KNESSET COMPOSITION

Total seats: 120

Simple majority needed to pass the vote: 61

Current government majority: 8 seats

LEGISLATIVE PROCEDURE

The Yesh Atid motion faces four votes with an absolute majority of the Knesset required in the final stretch to become law, thereby bringing a premature end to the legislature and triggering an election, which must be held within five months of the motion passing.

In practice, if the initial vote passes, the subsequent stages could occur all the same day or take months.

OPPOSITION STRATEGY

A bill to dissolve parliament will only be brought to a vote if Yesh Atid is confident of securing a majority. If not, it can withdraw the motion anytime before June 11, preventing a vote.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

Ultra-Orthodox coalition parties could decide to leave the government to protest at its failure to put forward a law granting exemption from military service to ultra-Orthodox men. At the same time, they might refuse to vote for dissolution of parliament, allowing a minority government to continue.

COALITION NUMBERS

The coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a majority of around 68 seats in parliament, though its size has fluctuated due to internal political shifts.

The two coalition ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, hold 18 seats collectively. If they united with the opposition, they would have enough votes to dissolve parliament and trigger early elections a year ahead of schedule.