S&P Global forecasts steady growth for Saudi Arabia amid adjusted oil projections

S&P Global has released updated projections for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth, forecasting a 0.8% increase in GDP for 2024 and a more robust 4.7% growth in 2025. These revisions reflect recalibrated assumptions for oil production and highlight the resilience of the Kingdom’s non-oil sectors.

S&P’s updated projections account for lower oil production expectations, now estimated at 9.5 million barrels per day in 2025, compared to an earlier forecast of 9.7 million barrels. This adjustment follows recent OPEC+ announcements and evolving trends in global oil markets, which have influenced output expectations for Saudi Arabia.

Despite these adjustments, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector continues to demonstrate strong potential, driven by the Kingdom’s economic diversification efforts under Vision 2030. The agency also noted Saudi Arabia’s success in maintaining low and stable inflation rates, projected at 1.8% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025, despite global economic challenges.

S&P reduced its real GDP growth forecasts for emerging markets by 10 basis points for both 2025 and 2026, now projecting growth rates of 4.3% and 4.4%, respectively. Saudi Arabia experienced the largest downward revision for 2025, with a 60 basis point reduction, followed by Hungary and Mexico.

The report cited geopolitical uncertainties and adjustments to global oil market dynamics as key factors influencing these revisions. Geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened risk aversion toward emerging markets, impacting commodity prices and global trade.