Syria’s new chapter: Why it’s too soon to celebrate

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, after years of devastating conflict, might initially seem like a moment of celebration for Syria and the region. 

Assad’s departure signifies the end of a brutal era defined by authoritarian rule, oppression, and his alliance with destabilizing actors like Iran and Hezbollah. While his fall is a blow to their influence, the question of who fills the power vacuum remains both critical and precarious.

On the surface, Assad's removal is a victory for those who have long opposed his regime's tyranny. Yet, this triumph comes with risks. 

Extremist groups such as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, stand poised to take advantage of the vacuum. While HTS has tried to present itself as a moderate alternative, its links to jihadist ideologies and the Muslim Brotherhood raise serious concerns.

The international community must remain vigilant and avoid naivety. Al-Joulani’s efforts to rebrand himself as a pragmatic leader do not erase his extremist past. If such groups gain power, Syria could face a new cycle of instability, replacing one oppressive regime with another.

The Weakening of Iran and Hezbollah

One undeniable consequence of Assad’s fall is the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah. Both actors have invested heavily in propping up the Assad regime, viewing it as a strategic pillar for their regional ambitions. The collapse of this alliance significantly undermines their ability to project power across the Levant.

For Iran, this marks a severe blow. Already grappling with internal unrest, economic decline, and international isolation, Iran’s regional influence is now further diminished. Its dream of a "Shia Crescent," connecting Tehran to the Mediterranean through Syria, faces significant setbacks.

Hezbollah, too, faces increased vulnerabilities. The group relied heavily on Assad for logistical and financial support, as well as for maintaining its supply routes through Syria. Assad’s fall jeopardizes its operations and leaves Hezbollah more isolated in Lebanon, where it is already facing domestic and economic pressures.

The best chance for a stable and prosperous Syria lies in empowering members of the educated diaspora, especially those who have opposed Assad's regime. 

Many Syrians who fled persecution under Assad now hold valuable expertise in governance, law, economics, and human rights. Their return could provide Syria with competent leadership, bridging divides and fostering public trust.

Such leadership would not only counterbalance the influence of extremist groups but also ensure that Syria’s future reflects the aspirations of its people. By leveraging their experience in democratic systems, these individuals can help build institutions that prioritize inclusivity, accountability, and the rule of law.

The fall of Assad presents both opportunities and challenges. The international community must act decisively to support Syria’s recovery while preventing further destabilization. Key steps include:

The fall of Bashar al-Assad marks a turning point not only for Syria but for the entire region. 

While the risks of extremist control and chaos are real, this moment also holds the potential for renewal. 

By addressing the power vacuum strategically and prioritizing the aspirations of the Syrian people, the international community can help ensure that Assad’s downfall leads to a brighter future.