US confirms new Lebanon-Israel talks next week

Lebanon and Israel will hold a third round of direct discussions in Washington next Thursday and Friday, a US State Department official confirmed, speaking on condition of anonymity. 

The talks mark the latest step in a diplomatic process that would have been unthinkable just months ago.

The two countries, which maintain no diplomatic relations, have already held two rounds of discussions in Washington, on 14 and 23 April.

Following the second session, President Donald Trump announced a three-week extension of the ceasefire between the two countries and expressed his expectation that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun would meet "in the coming weeks."

That summit has yet to materialise. At the start of this week, Aoun stated that a security agreement with Israel and an "end to Israeli aggressions" must precede any meeting between the two leaders, a position that reflects both domestic political pressures and a desire to enter any high-level encounter from a position of strength rather than necessity.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered an optimistic assessment on Tuesday, asserting that there was "no problem between the Lebanese and Israeli governments" and that Hezbollah remained the stumbling block. 

"I think a peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon is rapidly achievable," he added, a striking statement that reflects Washington's confidence in the trajectory of the talks.

Hezbollah's predictable rejection

True to form, Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group that dragged Lebanon into the regional war on 2 March by firing rockets at Israel in support of Tehran, has rejected the diplomatic process entirely. The group's parliamentary bloc has made clear that any outcome from the Washington talks is "of no concern" to it.

The position is consistent, if increasingly isolated. With Lebanon's president, prime minister and parliament speaker aligned behind the negotiating process, and with more than 68% of Lebanese Christians expressing support for peace with Israel in a recent poll, Hezbollah finds itself on the wrong side of both Lebanese public opinion and international momentum.

The third round of talks next week will be closely watched, as will the question of whether a Netanyahu-Aoun summit can follow before the current ceasefire extension expires.