A Palestinian state today would destroy Jordan tomorrow

The international push to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state is gaining momentum—and with it, the illusion that doing so will bring peace. 

It won’t. In fact, history and logic point to the opposite: declaring a Palestinian state today, under current conditions, would destabilize the Middle East and almost certainly lead to the collapse of Jordan within just a few short years.

This isn’t theory. It’s déjà vu

In 1970, King Hussein of Jordan was nearly overthrown by the Palestine Liberation Organization, which had built a militarized presence inside his country. 

The resulting conflict—Black September—killed thousands and almost ended Hashemite rule. “We came within hours of losing Jordan,” the king later recalled. The monarchy survived only by expelling the PLO to Lebanon, where it proceeded to ignite civil war there.

Today, over 60% of Jordan’s population is Palestinian. While most are peaceful citizens, radical Islamist factions like Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood see Jordan not as a neighbor—but as a prize. 

The moment a Palestinian state is declared next door, the ideological contagion will spread like wildfire. Jordanian Islamists will agitate for regime change, and the fragile balance between Palestinians and East Bankers will shatter.

The Hashemite monarchy, already under pressure from economic hardship and political fatigue, would not survive a radicalized uprising backed by a “liberated” state across the river.

And what then?

Iran, the puppet master of Hamas, would extend its proxy arc—from Tehran to Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, Gaza, and now Amman. 

The eastern border that Israel has long considered secure would become a new frontline. Rockets would threaten Jerusalem from both east and west. Saudi Arabia and Egypt would retreat from normalization efforts. The Abraham Accords would be buried under ash.

To call this a peace plan is diplomatic malpractice

The world must stop pretending that “statehood” alone is the answer. Before there can be peace, there must be unity among Palestinians, a renunciation of terrorism, full demilitarization, and a reeducation of generations raised to hate. Until then, the creation of a Palestinian state will not bring coexistence. It will bring collapse—starting with Jordan.

We ignored the lessons of 2005, when Israel withdrew from Gaza only to see Hamas rise. We must not ignore Black September. History is speaking. Are we listening?